tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8308814967611371361.post5529028279743790947..comments2009-08-18T13:35:17.902-05:00Comments on wezen-ball.com: Minnesota Twins: Consistently Beating Expectationslarhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17314820003835656973noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8308814967611371361.post-63027724374570220962008-12-04T21:48:00.000-06:002008-12-04T21:48:00.000-06:00Paul,that's a good question. The best reason I can...Paul,<BR/><BR/>that's a good question. The best reason I can think of is pretty simple, and I think Nick touched on it above: being in a small market with few <I>big</I> stars, it's easy to overlook the Twins or to look at their success from "last season" and dismiss it as a fluke.<BR/><BR/>I don't know if that's the right answer or just the "easy" answer, but it seems reasonable. Without any big stars to guarantee a strong season - and I mean no A-Rods or Bagwells or Pujols' etc - and with a small market, low payroll kind of team, it's easy to say that the team has "run it's course" and will fall back down. Maybe it's more complicated than that, but that's what comes to mind.larhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17314820003835656973noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8308814967611371361.post-73818775344734259382008-12-04T12:37:00.000-06:002008-12-04T12:37:00.000-06:00Hey Lar: The question this begs, though, is why a...Hey Lar: The question this begs, though, is why are the Twins so consistently underrated? Why are the expectations for the Twins consistently so low? I don't know the answer to that.Paul Dylanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07192176088488705736noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8308814967611371361.post-71645506308251388062008-12-03T20:26:00.000-06:002008-12-03T20:26:00.000-06:00That's a great point, Nick. I should have taken th...That's a great point, Nick. I should have taken that into consideration to begin with. When one is constantly given low expectations, then there's not much room to go but up. Among the magazines that I have, the only teams with a worst average predicted finish than the Twins are the Rays, the Pirates, and the Nationals. That's not really good company to be in as far as season-to-season expectations go.<BR/><BR/>In fact, the teams with the biggest positive differentials are all on the "low expectations" end of the spectrum (except for the Phillies, who have beaten their average prediction by 0.34 division spots despite being predicted to finish at a relatively high 2.84).<BR/><BR/>But even though it's only logical for a team with low expectations to more easily perform above them, the fact is that the Twins are still the only team in that group to do so, and to do so splendidly. And while you provide some great examples of failed moves by the organization, it seems to me that there has to be a lot going right with the organization - otherwise, they'd be in the same spot as the Pirates and Royals. And we can all be thankful that they're not in that predicament.larhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17314820003835656973noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8308814967611371361.post-81173319734202557862008-12-03T16:20:00.000-06:002008-12-03T16:20:00.000-06:00Interesting post.I think this trend is a combinati...Interesting post.<BR/><BR/>I think this trend is a combination of several things. It's tough to overlook the small-market bias; the Twins enter almost every season with relatively low expecations and they have generally lacked big star power over the past few decades. Not only does this help them exceed expectations consistently, but the bigger thing -- which I think you're overlooking -- is that it helps them avoid finishing well below expectations. Most teams around the league have had periods over the past few decades where they've been pretty highly regarded at the national level, and most of those teams have had years where they've fallen well below expectations. The Twins have had those seasons where they've been picked to finish 6th and finished 1st, but probably not many where they were picked to finish 1st and finished 6th. The constantly low expectations have helped buoy their rate.<BR/><BR/>The Twins have also been fortunate enough to play in some pretty bad divisions, with this year serving as a good example of that.<BR/><BR/>I don't mean to belittle the way the organization is run. I think, for the most part, the Twins' front office has done a good job of remaining competitive on a relatively modest budget, and rebuilding when need be. But this organization has made a lot of really poor decisions. Take a look at nearly all of their free agent signings over the past decade (Ramon Ortiz, Sidney Ponson, Tony Batista, Mike Lamb, Rondell White, Adam Everett, I can go on...). Take a look at how many first-round draft picks have busted since the late '90s (Matt Moses, Adam Johnson, B.J. Garbe, Ryan Mills...). Take a look at how shocking their inability to produce power hitters has been (zero 30-homer seasons between 1987 and 2006).<BR/><BR/>In general, the Twins have been a well-run club. But I think the trend you find has more to do with extraneous circumstances than some magic surrounding the team or some transcendent organizational philosophy.Nick N.https://www.blogger.com/profile/00848574337121154690noreply@blogger.com