Guide Preview: San Diego Padres

Well, it's the end of the week, and that brings us to the final NL West team preview - the San Diego Padres. There's a lot going on with the Padres these days, and very little of it is good. I really feel bad for Padres fans - they're team is stuck in a really bad situation, and there's very little chance of them getting out of it cleanly. Hopefully, as the organization goes through these changes, they make the best possible moves that can pay dividends for the team in the near future. In the immediate future, though, it's hard to see much good happening for the Pads.

As before, this preview is meant to be a summary of what the three main baseball preview magazines are saying about the team's 2009 season. I've included quotes and other information from each of the them - Sporting News, Athlon, and Lindy's. I've also included some statistics about each magazines' success at predictions over the last ten years. Be sure to check out the Team-by-Team Season Preview index for other guide previews over the next few weeks.

My original intention was to completely refrain from providing any opinion. I was afraid that I would have too much to say about some teams and too little about others. But, after doing a few of these now, I feel like there's room for some personal commentary. I think it'll add a little bit of personality to the preview. But I don't want to make my opinion the focus of the post, so I'll put it near the end. Please feel free to ignore it; I've never claimed to be the most knowledgeable person when it comes to all 30 teams. With that said, on with the "combined" team preview for the...

San Diego Padres
Last Year: 63 - 99, 5th Place, NL West

	Predictions			Since 1999
	This Year	Last Year		Avg Pred.	Avg Finish
Sporting News	5	4		3.625*	3.75*
Athlon	5	4		4.25**	4**
Lindy's	5	4		--	--

* Sporting News average includes preview guides from these years: 1999 - 2001, 2003 - 2004, 2006 - 2008
** Athlon average includes preview guides from these years: 1999 - 2003, 2006 - 2008

Team Notes

The story of San Diego's offseason was not the typical one of optimism. Instead, it was all about the problems in the team's front-office, and the upheaval that it caused. This was not unnoticed by the writers.

"Just when it appeared the franchise had hit bottom, the downward spiral continued. Instead of providing a respite from despair, the Padres' offseason only served to amplify what ails them.

The winter got off to a rough start when the Padres informed Trevor Hoffman, the team's record-setting closer and face of the franchise, that they don't intend to bring him back in 2009. The Padres didn't handle the parting as skillfully as they should have, and Hoffman said he felt 'blindsided' by the team's treatment.

Then general manager Kevin Towers was forced to entertain trade offers for the team's most desirable commodity, starter Jake Peavy. The Padres are having financial issues, in large part because of owner John Moores' divorce, so they began shopping Peavy 10 months after signing him to a three year, $52 million extension. Only after a proposed trade with the Cubs fell through did it appear likely that Peavy would be staying put.

While the Padres' payroll is being cut from $73 million to about $40 million, the team lacks the nucleus of homegrown talent to keep pace. A shortage of prospects in the pipeline has caught up with them in a division where Arizona, Los Angeles, and Colorado have proven adept at mining talent on the farm. (Lindy's)"

It's truly a depressing aspect of the organization, but it doesn't need to be dwelt on too much. It's obviously a major issue, but that doesn't mean that there aren't positives for the team that deserve a little mention. Jake Peavy is definitely number one on that list (assuming he doesn't get dealt, of course).

"The Padres' party line is that they lost 99 games with Peavy, but they certainly didn't lose 99 games because of Peavy. He had a dropoff from his Cy Young Award-winning season of 2007 but remains a fiery competitor who's not afraid to voice his opinion about the team's direction. (Athlon)"

The Padres also have a star in first-baseman Adrian Gonzalez, an underappreciated player who was an All-Star last season and who won the Gold Glove.

"Gonzalez, a former No. 1 overall draft pick, is a perfect example of the value of patience. Unable to find a spot in the lineup with the Marlins and Rangers, the San Diego native returned home and has paid dividends for the Padres, with a combined 90 home runs and 301 RBIs in the last three seasons. (TSN)"

Spotlight Quote

I'm not trying to dwell on the negatives, but it would be dishones to ignore them. Here's one last dose of pessimism from TSN's "View from the Other Dugout":

"What a sad state of affairs. So much for all that talk about a new park providing a basis for long-term competitiveness of a team. This is a bad team and it doesn't have any reason to expect to get better. It's one thing to go with young players. The problem for the Padres is they don't have young players to develop. The farm system is a mess
...
They have two players that other teams would want. There is Jake Peavy, who they spent the winter trying to trade so they could slash payroll. What the heck - he'll be worn out by the time this team has a chance to compete anyway. Then there is first baseman Adrian Gonzalez. He has been a great story since he got to the Padres. He is one of the best hitters in the game."

Commentary

Two years ago, the Padres had to play a one-game playoff game with the World Series-bound Rockies to determine which of the two 89-win teams would claim the Wild Card. It was a disappointing end to the season - ask any Padre fan about that Holliday play-at-the-plate - but there was plenty of reason for hope the next year. Something happened that off-season, and the Padres entered 2008 with much lower expectations. Even with those low expectations - all three of these preview magazines predicted a 4th place finish - the Padres underperformed, losing 99 games.

And then this offseason came around, and it got even worse. There was the unforgivable way they treated future Hall of Famer Trevor Hoffman, in an effort to "save money", yet they activated Brian Giles' $9 million club option. They also shopped around Jake Peavy, but failed to get the Cubs to bite fully. From what I understand, this is all a result of the owner's divorce proceedings. It's a sad circumstance, and I hope the club's "sale" to Jeff Moorad works out well. But with all the turmoil in the club and with all the cost-cutting moves that they've had to make, it's impossible to predict good things for this team.

Jake Peavy, Chris Young and Adrian Gonzalez are still quality players, and the team could always find some sort of gear that no one suspects is there, but it's pretty unlikely. It's a good thing for the other teams in the West, as it makes the division that much easier to win, but that's not going to make any San Diego fan happy. I certainly hope for the fans' sakes that the Padres put up a respectable season, but I just don't think it's going to happen.

Appreciating Baseball-Reference

I don't think I'm shocking anyone when I say that Baseball-Reference.com is one of the best sites on the internet (for us baseball fans, at least) and one that I use all the time. Sean Forman's site is loaded with about as much information as you could possibly ask for, and it's all free. Basically, this is what the internet is designed for, and I feel awfully thankful that it exists. And with the news last week of his new partnership, it's obvious that the site is working rather successfully. I couldn't be happier.

One of the neat little aspects of BR is the sponsorship option: pretty much any page on the site (players, teams, colleges, etc) can be sponsored by an individual or website. For the big names like Barry Bonds or Cal Ripken, Jr., you're probably just going to see big websites sponsoring those pages since they cost more money. But for less popular players, from Duke Snider down to Jim Eisenreich and even lower (*cough*Eddie Zosky*cough*), you have a pretty good chance of putting your name on their page and giving a brief shout-out. It's a great little feature for fans, especially if you have a fascination or personal connection with a less popular player.

After thinking about this recently, I decided that it might be a fun idea to sponsor a couple of pages myself. I don't expect to draw much, if any, traffic from these sponsorships, but it seemed like something I should do anyway. I'd be showing my support for some players/teams that have some meaning to me, and I'd be supporting a great website at the same time. And with the majority of pages costing $10 or less, it didn't seem like a big hit to the pocket book. So I took the plunge earlier this week, and now the pages I've sponsored are live! A list of the three pages that I sponsored, and a brief reason for why I chose each page, is below. Take a look, and let me know if you've sponsored any pages yourself (and why).

• 2006 Milwaukee Brewers - This team has some great memories for me. They may not have been the best Brewers team of recent years, but I'll remember them for a long time You can read why here (see #21).
• Cal Poly State University - This is my alma mater, and I'm proud to be an alum alongside such baseball luminaries as Mike Krukow, Thornton Lee, Garrett Olson, and, of course, Ozzie Smith. John Madden and Weird Al Yankovic are also fellow alums. Good company! I touched on some university stuff back in December.
• Fernando Valenzuela - Fernando was at his best in the early 1980s, and that was just a little bit before my time. But coming from a Los Angeles household from that time period, Fernando definitely had a positive impact. I've said before that Cal Ripken was my favorite player growing up, but there's no way I'd ever be able to sponsor his page. Fernando was the best I could do, and I'm quite happy with that. As it turns out, I wrote about Fernando earlier as well.
  

Guide Preview: Colorado Rockies

The Colorado Rockies are the next team up in our guide preview lineup. Two years ago, the Rockies rode one of the greatest hot streaks of all-time into the Fall Classic, before getting swept away by the Red Sox. The immense success of that team led many to predict big things for the Rockies last year. But it wasn't to happen. Troy Tulowitzki, the 2007 Rookie of the Year runner-up, was put on the disabled list early in the season, but was able to pull it together in the second half. The rest of the team was never quite able to put it together though, and the Rockies finished in a disappointing 3rd place. The Rockies and their fans hope that they can re-capture that magic from late-2007.

As before, this preview is meant to be a summary of what the three main baseball preview magazines are saying about the team's 2009 season. I've included quotes and other information from each of the them - Sporting News, Athlon, and Lindy's. I've also included some statistics about each magazines' success at predictions over the last ten years. Be sure to check out the Team-by-Team Season Preview index for other guide previews over the next few weeks.

My original intention was to completely refrain from providing any opinion. I was afraid that I would have too much to say about some teams and too little about others. But, after doing a few of these now, I feel like there's room for some personal commentary. I think it'll add a little bit of personality to the preview. But I don't want to make my opinion the focus of the post, so I'll put it near the end. Please feel free to ignore it; I've never claimed to be the most knowledgeable person when it comes to all 30 teams. With that said, on with the "combined" team preview for the...

Colorado Rockies
Last Year: 74 - 88, 3rd Place, NL West

	Predictions			Since 1999
	This Year	Last Year		Avg Pred.	Avg Finish
Sporting News	4	2		3.75*	3.875*
Athlon	4	3		4.375**	3.875**
Lindy's	4	2		--	--

* Sporting News average includes preview guides from these years: 1999 - 2001, 2003 - 2004, 2006 - 2008
** Athlon average includes preview guides from these years: 1999 - 2003, 2006 - 2008

Team Notes

The Rockies are in an interesting position. Only one injury-riddled year removed from a World Series appearance, Colorado has much of the same team in place, but with some glaring differences. Whether they can ever again replicate that 2007 success remains to be seen, especially considering their historic weaknesses.

"As inspirational as 'Rocktober' must have seemed to win-starved baseball bystanders in Denver, the Rockies showed they're not much for encores. An 11-17 April regressed into a 9-19 May in 2008, and it wasn't long before Colorado sports fans began obsessing over the Broncos' attempts to upgrade the offensive line. (Lindy's)"

The biggest move of the offseason for Colorado happened quite early, when they traded Matt Holliday to the A's for Huston Street, Greg Smith, and prospect Carlos Gonzalez. It may have been a tough pill to swallow for Rockies fans, especially after he scored the winning run in the game #163 of the 2007 season, but it was rather shrewd of GM Dan O'Dowd, especially considering how the winter market played out.

"Knowing the free agent market would be glutted with corner outfielders, resourceful general manager Dan O'Dowd moved quickly and traded Holliday, a left fielder, to Oakland in November for pitchers Street and Smith and promising outfield prospect Gonzalez. The latter is the key to the deal O'Dowd made because Holliday can be a free agent after this season, and the Rockies, a mid-market club with a payroll in the $70 million range, weren't going to be able to sign him to a long-term contract. (Athlon)"

But the key to the Rockies season will be how their stars, particulary Troy Tulowitzki and Todd Helton, perform. With a nasty groin injury sidelining Tulowitzki for most of the first half, and with Helton's body beginning to show its age, the Rockies offense suffered. If they can both get back to their peak form, the team may have enough to compete with the Diamondbacks and Dodgers.

"The return of Helton to at least a contributing role is vital. He is a professional hitter and, even though the power numbers aren't there anymore, opposing managers make no bones about the intimidating presence he presents in late innings. Helton is one of the best two-strike hitters in the game, has an ability to fight off quality pitches and can expand his strike zone to drive in runs.
...
Shortstop Troy Tulowitzki battled a sophomore slump in April and then a groin injury that bothrered him the remainder of the season. He rebounded with a strong second half, however, reaffirming the confidence the Rockies had in him when he signed up for seven years after his rookie campaign. (TSN)"

Spotlight Quote

TSN's "View from the Other Dugout":

"This is an organization that seems to be spinning its wheels. They are always talking about building for the future. What about winning today? They got in a tough situation with Matt Holliday. You know you aren't signing a Scott Boras client to a contract extension. But in this division, if the pitching staff falls in place, these guys could have won this year with Holliday having a big year.

Without Holliday, there's no go-to guy in the lineup. My hunch is Todd Helton is not going to be able to come back from the back surgery - at least not on a 140-game schedule. He's going to be limited, at best, and without him there is nobody in the lineup to protect the other hitters."

Commentary

It's a pretty common story: a team surprises the world to make a deep playoff run and, as the next season rolls around, it receives loads of praise and optimism. After all, if the team was good enough to do it when it counted only 6 months ago, then it should definitely be able to do it again. Well, that's the rationale at least, and the 2007 NL Wild Card and pennant winners definitely matched this MO. To many, 2008 seemed like a disappointing year. To go from the World Series to a 74-win third-place finish is quite the fall, for sure, but I don't agree.

Those 2007 Rockies were an impressive group, and they proved that by rolling off 21 wins in the month of September to squeeze into the playoffs, including a one-game playoff with the San Diego Padres. They then parlayed that streak into 7 straight postseason victories and a date with the Red Sox in the Fall Classic. It was a fantastic run and proved that the team could get things done when it needed to, but it was a fluke of luck. If any one play in any number of games went the other way (if Tony Gwynn Jr. didn't stroke that triple off Trevor Hoffman with two outs in the ninth inning to tie the game up on the final Saturday of the season, or if Matt Holliday was called 'out' on that play at the plate, for two easy examples), then the Rockies never would have even made it into the postseason, let alone to the World Series.

It seems to me that the 2008 Rockies were much closer to that team that was 76-72 on September 15 than they were to the 90-73 team that claimed the NL pennant only two weeks later. With that in mind, the 2008 season, while disappointing in its own right, was not nearly the epic disappointment that some seem to believe. The 2009 season shouldn't be much different, and may in fact be worse with the departure of Matt Holliday. Luckily for the Rockies, the Padres are also in their division and have a firm hold on the cellar floor. The Rockies don't have to worry about finishing in last place, but, even with a return to form by Tulowitzki and Helton, I doubt they'll be competing with the Dodgers or D-Backs for the crown.

Guide Preview: Arizona Diamondbacks

Continuing on our guide preview trip through the NL West, we find the Arizona Diamondbacks. The D-Backs are entering their 12th season as a franchise this year, and they've had an interesting history. They've won a World Series and made the playoffs three other times, but they've also had a few bad seasons (a 51-win team in 2004 comes to mind). Two years ago, these Diamondbacks were in the NLCS. Now we'll have to see if they can get back there in a weak NL West, or if they'll continue in the other direction.

As before, this preview is meant to be a summary of what the three main baseball preview magazines are saying about the team's 2009 season. I've included quotes and other information from each of the them - Sporting News, Athlon, and Lindy's. I've also included some statistics about each magazines' success at predictions over the last ten years. Be sure to check out the Team-by-Team Season Preview index for other guide previews over the next few weeks.

My original intention was to completely refrain from providing any opinion. I was afraid that I would have too much to say about some teams and too little about others. But, after doing a few of these now, I feel like there's room for some personal commentary. I think it'll add a little bit of personality to the preview. But I don't want to make my opinion the focus of the post, so I'll put it near the end. Please feel free to ignore it; I've never claimed to be the most knowledgeable person when it comes to all 30 teams. With that said, on with the "combined" team preview for the...

Arizona Diamondbacks
Last Year: 82 - 80, 2nd Place, NL West

	Predictions			Since 1999
	This Year	Last Year		Avg Pred.	Avg Finish
Sporting News	2	1		2.25*	2.5*
Athlon	1	1		2.375**	2**
Lindy's	2	1		--	--

* Sporting News average includes preview guides from these years: 1999 - 2001, 2003 - 2004, 2006 - 2008
** Athlon average includes preview guides from these years: 1999 - 2003, 2006 - 2008

Team Notes

The Diamondbacks started off the 2008 season incredibly hot, but were unable to sustain it as the season progressed. The top of the rotation, in Cy Young-candidate Brandon Webb and Danny Haren, did its part to keep the team contending, but the rest of the team could not keep up, even after trading for Adam Dunn for the stretch run.

"Righthanders Brandon Webb and Dan Haren comprise what is arguably the best 1-2 starting punch in the major leagues. The pair combined for 47 quality starts to tie for the major league lead among teammates and took turns carrying the team - Webb won his first nine starts and later had an eight-game winning streak, while the Diamondbacks twice won five straight games in which Haren started. Neither missed a start, and each was the NL Pitcher of the Month once. (Athlon)"

As stable as Webb has been in that ace-hole for the D-Backs, the organization is still in flux. Years ago, the organization took on a lot of debt and backloaded contracts to help fund a World Series run. It was successful, but it left this current Arizona squad with some financial trouble. Couple that with the current economy, and the D-Backs have had to make a lot of changes, some of which may affect the on-the-field product.

"Some harsh financial realities are making life a challenge for Arizona general manager Josh Byrnes. The Diamondbacks laid off 31 employees in November in conjunction with an organizational austerity program. They couldn't afford to re-sign Randy Johnson even when he offered to take a 50 percent pay cut, and they declined to offer salary arbitration to Adam Dunn out of fear that he might accept and make a salary of $15 million in 2009.

It's a good thing that a heralded group of former Baseball America darlings is around to keep Arizona competitive in the NL West. But as the events of 2008 showed, development isn't necessarily a straight vertical line. (Lindy's)"

However, it's not all bad. There is some quality young talent playing for the Diamondbacks at the major league level who, as they mature, will certainly help the club contend in this division.

"The homegrown trio of shortstop Stephen Drew, left fielder [Conor] Jackson, and right fielder Justin Upton is being counted on to take a major step forward out of the 3-4-5 spots in the order. Drew is a lot like older brother J.D. of the Red Sox, showing the ability to be a special player but leaving questions about his focus with stretches of mediocrity in the field and at the plate. Jackson is a solid hitter, but would fit better in a No. 2 or No. 7 slot than cleanup. Upton has been force-fed to the majors and it has impeded his development. He has the bat speed to hit anybody's fastball, but once teams change speeds and bend pitches, Upton struggles to make contact. (TSN)"

Spotlight Quote

From Athlon's "Beyond the Box Score":

"Select Company: Stephen Drew joined select company with his breakout 2008 season. With 44 doubles, 11 triples, and 21 home runs, Drew became the third shortstop in major league history to have at least 40 doubles, 10 triples and 20 home runs in the same season. Milwaukee's Robin Yount did it twice (1980, 1982) and Boston's Nomar Garciaparra did it in 1997. Drew is the first NL shortstop to accomplish the feat."

And then there's this pessimistic "View from the Other Dugout" in TSN:

"Realistically, this is a team that very likely will finish fourth. The offense doesn't have big time power, but it creates a lot of breezes with the way it swings and misses. Maybe that saves on the air-conditioning bill. They had a leadoff hitter last year, Chris Young, who struck out more than 100 times. They talk about Mark Reynolds' run production. Well what about the 204 strikeouts? You don't think teams haven't figured out how to pitch him?

I look at their roster. They don't have a second baseman. They don't have a closer. They are missing three starting pitchers. We're talking about a rotation that's two-deep, with Brandon Webb and Dan Haren, and then you cross your fingers. There isn't even a young arm you are hoping can finish off games. There are three guys who have been around, shown no ability to consistently close out games that count, and nothing more..."

Commentary

The Diamondbacks finished the season in second place last year, behind the strong pitching of Danny Haren and Brandon Webb, and with the help of some young stars, like Chris Young, Justin Upton and Stephen Drew. It's a good core of players, and should keep the D-Backs in contention for years to come. But are the position players good enough this year to carry them over the top?

Honestly, I don't really know. The D-Backs are obviously a talented team, staying near the top of the division for the last couple of years. But, at the same time, they only managed to win 82 games last year and were unable to take command of a division that only needed 84 games to win it. The top of Arizona's rotation - Webb and Haren - can compete with anybody, and that should keep them in contention in this weak division. If things go well and their young players continue to mature, they could end up winning the division this year, but that might be asking too much.

Greatest Teammates of All-Time

Last week, when I wrote about Seattle's Hall of Fame Trio, I made this off-hand comment:

"It's a fantastic core of players to have, and may in fact be the best trio of talent in 40 or 50 years, especially when you consider their all-around talent and their respective places in history at their positions (I suppose the Orioles and Reds of the 1970s might have a case)."

The comment found its way into that piece naturally - I hadn't planned on saying anything like that, but it seemed the best way to describe things. And, as it came to mind, it made me wonder: what team did have the best collection of young talent playing together at one time, and was there a way to quantify it?

The Method

The question was too intriguing to ignore and so, first chance I got, I started exploring it. First off, I decided to use Win Shares as my metric. I know it's not necessarily a perfect stat, but I think it should work well here. Once that decision was made, I needed to define exactly what I was looking for.

This is how I would describe the query I used: find all teams that have 3 or more players who started their season with that club and played more than half the season there, who are in the first half of their career and who have 300 or more career Win Shares.

A few notes about the query, as it's defined:

• This will exclude players who were traded to their team mid-season and players who were injured for more than half the season. For example, Randy Johnson's 1996 season will not be counted on this list because he only pitched in 14 games that year. It will also exclude Johnson's 1998 stint with the Astros, but his time with the Mariners in '98 will be counted.
  
• Players were determined to be "in the first half of their career" if, at the start of that season, they had earned less than half their career Win Shares. That means that a 34-year-old Randy Johnson would be included on the list, since he had only earned 129 of his 327 career win share by then. However, a 31-year-old Andre Dawson would not be included, because by that time he had already earned 200 of his 340 career win shares. I included a little wiggle room on the percentage of win shares earned, so that players who went over the halfway mark by only a few win shares wouldn't be excluded.
• Three-hundred Win Shares was kind of an arbitrary choice. I would have liked to have gone higher, since players like Ken Singleton and his 302 career win shares aren't exactly who we're looking for here. Win Shares aren't quite friendly to pitchers, though, and that would have left off pitchers like Jim Palmer and Randy Johnson, so I kept it at three-hundred. But this list is only the first step - it's a starting point, and it gives us a basis to compare teams. From there, we can take a more subjective look at the list and see what we find.
  

The Results

This method works about as well as we can hope for, but there’s a layer of subjectivity that needs to be taken into account here. As I said before, the Ken Singleton’s and Jose Cruz’s of the world aren’t exactly who I’m looking for. Granted, most of these players will wash out when a trio of them is stacked against a more formidable group, but if one is grouped with a tremendous pair of teammates, it might muck up the rankings. So let’s take a look at the top teams that have been found and see how they stack up.

Team	Players (ages, Win Shares to Date, Career WS)	Total Career WS
1972-73 Cincinnati Reds	Joe Morgan (28-29 years old, 155-194 WS to date, 512 Career WS) Johnny Bench (24-25, 107-144, 356) Pete Rose (31-32, 233-265, 547) Tony Perez (30-31, 145-170, 349)	1764 WS
1965 Cincinnati Reds	Frank Robinson (29 years old, 252 WS to date, 519 Career WS) Pete Rose (24, 31, 547) Tony Perez (23, 0, 349) Vada Pinson (26, 162, 321)	1736 WS
1963 San Francisco Giants	Gaylord Perry (24 years old, 1 WS to date, 369 Career WS) Orlando Cepeda (25, 124, 310) Willie Mays (32, 350, 642) Willie McCovey (25, 49, 408)	1729 WS
1915 Boston Red Sox	Babe Ruth (20 years old, 1 WS to date, 756 Career WS) Harry Hooper (27, 104, 321) Tris Speaker (27, 229, 630)	1707 WS
1955-56 Milwaukee Braves	Eddie Matthews (23-24 years old, 91-125 WS to date, 450 Career WS) Hank Aaron (21-22, 13-42, 643) Warren Spahn (34-35, 202-221, 412)	1505 WS
1997-98 Seattle Mariners	Alex Rodriguez (21-22 years old, 36-58 WS to date, 407 Career WS) Edgar Martinez (34-35, 138-165, 305) Ken Griffey Jr. (27-28, 179-215, 406) Randy Johnson (33, 106-129, 327)	1445 WS
1974 Cincinnati Reds	Joe Morgan (30 years old, 234 WS to date, 512 Career WS) Johnny Bench (26, 170, 356) Pete Rose (33, 299, 547)	1415 WS
1995 Atlanta Braves	Chipper Jones (23 years old, 0 WS to date, 353 Career WS) Fred McGriff (31, 188, 341) Greg Maddux (29, 152, 395) Tom Glavine (29, 99, 315)	1404 WS
1964 Cincinnati Reds	Frank Robinson (28 years old, 219 WS to date, 519 Career WS) Pete Rose (23, 19, 547) Vada Pinson (25, 140, 321)	1387 WS
1901-03 Pittsburgh Pirates	Fred Clarke (28-30 years old, 136-193 WS to date, 400 Career WS) Honus Wagner (27-29, 91-163, 655) Tommy Leach (23-25, 16-60, 328)	1383 WS
1960-62 San Francisco Giants	Orlando Cepeda (22-24 years old, 43-98 WS to date, 310 Career WS) Willie Mays (29-31, 237-309, 642) Willie McCovey (22-24, 1237, 408)	1360 WS
1965 Milwaukee Braves	Hank Aaron (31 years old, 355 WS to date, 643 Career WS) Joe Torre (24, 70, 315) Phil Niekro (26, 0, 374)	1332 WS
1968-71 Cincinnati Reds	Johnny Bench (20-23 years old, 2-88 WS to date, 356 Career WS) Pete Rose (27-30, 107-208, 547) Tony Perez (26-29, 33-122, 349)	1252 WS
1909 Philadelphia Athletics	Eddie Collins (22 years old, 11 WS to date, 574 Career WS) Eddie Plank (33, 196, 361) Frank Baker (23, 2, 301)	1236 WS
1928-31 Philadelphia Athletics	Al Simmons (26-29 years old, 104-197 WS to date, 375 Career WS) Jimmie Foxx (20-23, 8-98, 435) Lefty Grove (28-31, 58-150, 391)	1201 WS

Click here to see all the players and teams that qualified for this list.

The first thing you'll notice is the utter dominance of this list by the 1960s and 1970s Cincinnati Reds. In the eleven seasons spanning 1964 and 1974, the Reds qualified for this list in nine of them, using various combinations of Vada Pinson, Tony Perez, Frank Robinson, Pete Rose, Johnny Bench and Jim Morgan. Pinson and Perez may not be among baseball's immortals, but there's little doubt that the others are. The Reds were able to maintain their place on the list by a fortuitous combination of young stars and long tenure (i.e., they're stars came up early and they stayed on the team for a long time). They were, however, only able to make it to the World Series twice in those eleven years, winning neither time (they did win back-to-back Series in 1975 and 1976, though).

After those Cincinnati teams, we find the 1963 San Francisco Giants, with Orlando Cepeda, Gaylord Perry, Willie McCovey, and Willie Mays. This quartet may, subjectively, place higher than the '65 Reds. The top two stars (Mays & McCovey vs. Robinson & Rose) are a wash, with maybe a slight edge to Mays, while the second-tier stars (Cepeda & Perry vs. Perez & Pinson) give it to the Giants. Again, the objective measure says different, but, unless you believe 100% in the power of Win Shares, a little subjectivity is required.

Next up are the 1915 Red Sox, with a very young Babe Ruth, and the 1955-56 Milwaukee Braves, featuring Hammerin' Hank. Ruth doesn't appear anywhere else on the list - he didn't have any other teammates qualify for the list until Lou Gehrig arrived in 1925, the year in which Ruth dropped off the list by moving into the second half of his career. Aaron led a talented young Braves team in '55 & '56 (winning the World Series in '57). His teammates of Eddie Matthews and Warren Spahn make up probably the strongest trio on this list after Rose, Morgan, and Bench.

After the pair of home run kings, we finally find the team that started this search in the first place, and it is indeed the best collection of young talent in the last 35 years. The '97 & '98 Mariners trio of A-Rod, Griffey, and Johnson are joined on the list by Edgar Martinez, who just barely met the Win Shares requirement. Still, adding the best designated hitter of all-time to a list that already includes Alex Rodriguez, Ken Griffey, Jr., and Randy Johnson does nothing to weaken the list. The 1995 Braves also make the list at this point, showing just how lucky we were as fans during the mid-to-late '90s. Long-time Atlanta teammates Chipper Jones, Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine are joined by Fred McGriff in his last qualifying year to place the Braves this highly. But while our objective measure places these two teams fairly close together, I think it's pretty obvious that the Mariners squad is the superior one, especially considering that A-Rod has nine more years to add to his resume.

I'll stop here and let you check out the remaining sets of teammates yourself. Remember, you can find the full list of teams and players here. Before I go though, I'll offer this subjective list of the best sets of teammates of all-time, using the above list as a starting point. Please let me know if/where you disagree.

1. 1972-73 Cincinnati Reds (Morgan, Rose, Bench, Perez)
2. 1955-56 Milwaukee Braves (Aaron, Spahn, Matthews)
3. 1962-63 San Francisco Giants (Mays, McCovey, Perry, Cepeda)
4. 1997-98 Seattle Mariners (Rodriguez, Griffey, Johnson, Martinez)
5. 1965 Cincinnati Reds (Robinson, Rose, Perez, Pinson)

Guide Preview: San Francisco Giants

Next up in the NL West we find the Dodgers' archrival, the San Francisco Giants. The Giants started out the season last year with dismal preseason predictions, with pundits far and ride questioning the team's ability to score runs. And while the Giants did have offensive troubles, it wasn't quite as terrible as predicted. Whether this was because of the weak division or if it was a side effect of the Giants great pitching, it's hard to say. No matter what, though, San Francisco did outperform just about everybody's 2008 predictions, giving Giants fans a reason for optimism. Being able to throw the league's Cy Young every fifth day doesn't hurt that optimism, either.

As before, this preview is meant to be a summary of what the three main baseball preview magazines are saying about the team's 2009 season. I've included quotes and other information from each of the them - Sporting News, Athlon, and Lindy's. I've also included some statistics about each magazines' success at predictions over the last ten years. Be sure to check out the Team-by-Team Season Preview index for other guide previews over the next few weeks.

My original intention was to completely refrain from providing any opinion. I was afraid that I would have too much to say about some teams and too little about others. But, after doing a few of these now, I feel like there's room for some personal commentary. I think it'll add a little bit of personality to the preview. But I don't want to make my opinion the focus of the post, so I'll put it near the end. Please feel free to ignore it; I've never claimed to be the most knowledgeable person when it comes to all 30 teams. With that said, on with the "combined" team preview for the...

San Francisco Giants
Last Year: 72 - 90, 4th Place, NL West

	Predictions			Since 1999
	This Year	Last Year		Avg Pred.	Avg Finish
Sporting News	3	5		2.75*	2.5*
Athlon	3	5		2.125**	2.5**
Lindy's	3	5		--	--

* Sporting News average includes preview guides from these years: 1999 - 2001, 2003 - 2004, 2006 - 2008
** Athlon average includes preview guides from these years: 1999 - 2003, 2006 - 2008

Team Notes

The Giants showed last season that they were a team with an overly impressive rotation and an equally impressive lack of offense. They went into the offseason hoping to add a bat to the lineup, but came away with only Edgar Renteria, who had a miserable 2008 campaign. Offensively, the Giants did not seem to impress anybody with their winter.

"The Giants are now a full season removed from their association with baseball's home run king, and like Bonds, they're finding the transition a rocky one. The franchise is searching for an identity, but all it has at the moment are aspirations of mediocrity.

In the eight year stretch from 1997 through 2004, the Giants averaged 92 wins a season under Dusty Baker and Felipe Alou. They made four playoff appearances and took the Angels to the limit in the the 2002 World Series.

The past four seasons: Not so great. The Giants have averaged 73 victories under Alou and Bruce Bochy, and they've struggled to put a coherent plan into place. While vowing to build from within and focus on their young pitching, the Giants spent $126 million on starter Barry Zito and $60 million on outfielder Aaron Rowand in free agency. The trend continued on a smaller scale last winter when they signed shortstop Edgar Renteria, whose better days are behind him. (Lindy's)"

Thankfully, though, the Giants do have one very impressive piece in their organization: their pitching staff. Cy Young winner Tim Lincecum is a very impressive figure on the mound, despite his small stature. His 18-5 record, 265 strikeouts and 2.62 ERA for a 4th place team impressed the voters enough to give him the award over the 22-7 Brandon Webb.

"He's a young, skinny kid with a load of talent. He's the guy you want on the mound for you. He goes out and blows people away. He's an exciting guy to watch. He's the kind of pitcher people pay to see. He'll start drawing (crowds) like Fernando Valenzuela and Vida Blue did.

The key is having him stay healthy. He is small and he does have a challenging delivery, but he doesn't seem to be bothered by it at all, so far. (TSN)"

Outside of the pitching staff, the Giants' strongest unit is their outfield, and even that is far from perfect. Aaron Rowand and Randy Winn are valuable pieces for an organization, though Rowand's $60 million contract does give one pause. Fred Lewis, the third outfielder, is not exactly in the big leagues for his bat.

"Aaron Rowand got off to a tremendous start after signing a five-year, $60 million contract, hitting .330 through May. But with AT&T Park's large dimensions getting in his head, he hit .239 the rest of the way and had only one RBI in September. His defense wasn't Gold Glove caliber either, and he struggled to cover the large open spaces in the NL West. His arm was highly erratic as well. The Giants plan to rest Rowand more often, which will be easier because Fred Lewis and Randy Winn can both play center in a pinch. Lewis has poor instincts in the field and at the plate, where he takes too many strikes. The Giants plan to move him from leadoff to fifth, where they believe a more aggressive approach will turn him into a 20-homer guy. (Athlon)"

Spotlight Quote

TSN's "View from the Other Dugout" provides a different, more positive view of the Giants' chances this season:

"This team is the sleeper in baseball. There's no team that gets overlooked more but is in a better position to surprise and win a division. The one thing the Giants came into the new year lacking was a big bat, but they seemed intent on trying to find one. Drop a big bat into the middle of that lineup and there is reason to think about a division title.
...
The key is the pitching staff, and the Giants have the pitching staff, which is why if they can add one legit middle-of-the-lineup bat, they will be a factor."

But Athlon's "Final Analysis" probably says it best:

"The Giants didn't see any value plays for a big bat on the free agent or trade markets during the Christmas shopping season, so they'll enter the season hoping for incremental improvement from their young offensive players. In any other division, they'd cap their hopes at a .500 record. But in the miserable NL West, their pitching alone could keep them in contention long enough to warrant a midseason boost in the lineup. Crazier things have happened."

Commentary

There's no doubt that the Giants are weak offensively (they scored the second fewest run in the National League last year), and that isn't likely to change much this year. That should be offset by a couple of things, though: one, the weak nature of the NL West, meaning the team will not need to be too impressive in order to compete, and two, the fantastic strength of the rotation. With Lincecum, Cain and Randy Johnson at the top of the rotation and a talented Jonathan Sanchez at the back, there is very little to complain about.

The question remains, though, will a lineup that relies heavily on the bats of Bengie Molina and youngsters Pablo Sandoval and Fred Lewis be enough to compete into September. Randy Winn and a possibly-rejuvenated Edgar Renteria can definitely set the table, but if Sandoval, Molina and Rowand can't drive them in, then it doesn't matter much. In the end, I have to say that I really don't know what to expect from the Giants. Obviously, the fact that they will be throwing Lincecum and Cain every fifth day will keep the Giants competitive, but I don't know if they have enough to compete the other 60% of the time. The NL West is weak, but I don't think it's that weak. Still, the Giants should keep the season interesting for their fans for quite a while, and they can't really complain about that.

Guide Preview: Los Angeles Dodgers

Last week, I started these season previews by looking at the Brewers and the rest of the NL Central. That series bled over into this week, with my preview of the Pirates. I blame Bud Selig, and his reorganization of the Central into a six-team division. Ideally, however, I'd like these previews to cover one division a week. With that in mind, I'm going to jump the gun a little bit and post two previews today so that I can get all 5 NL West teams in before the weekend. We'll start with the Dodgers, who won their first postseason series in 20 years against the highly favored Cubs last year, before bowing out to the eventual World Series champs.

As before, this preview is meant to be a summary of what the three main baseball preview magazines are saying about the team's 2009 season. I've included quotes and other information from each of the them - Sporting News, Athlon, and Lindy's. I've also included some statistics about each magazines' success at predictions over the last ten years. Be sure to check out the Team-by-Team Season Preview index for other guide previews over the next few weeks.

My original intention was to completely refrain from providing any opinion. I was afraid that I would have too much to say about some teams and too little about others. But, after doing a few of these now, I feel like there's room for some personal commentary. I think it'll add a little bit of personality to the preview. But I don't want to make my opinion the focus of the post, so I'll put it near the end. Please feel free to ignore it; I've never claimed to be the most knowledgeable person when it comes to all 30 teams. With that said, on with the "combined" team preview for the...

Los Angeles Dodgers
Last Year: 84 - 78, 1st Place, NL West

	Predictions			Since 1999
	This Year	Last Year		Avg Pred.	Avg Finish
Sporting News	1	3		2.625*	2.25*
Athlon	2	2		1.875**	2.5**
Lindy's	1	3		--	--

* Sporting News average includes preview guides from these years: 1999 - 2001, 2003 - 2004, 2006 - 2008
** Athlon average includes preview guides from these years: 1999 - 2003, 2006 - 2008

Team Notes

The Dodgers won the NL West last year with only 84 wins, but then went on to sweep the 97-win Cubs in the NLDS. A lot of that can be attributed to the tear that the team went on in September, after the deadline deal for Manny Ramirez invigorated the team. With Manny yet to sign with a team, it seems like a lethal blow to the Dodgers' division hopes. However, with the weak competition in the NL West, they have as good of a chance as ever to defend their division crown.

"The Dodgers best weapon is still the fact that they play in the NL West. While this appears to be pretty much the same team it was last year - minus one enigmatic slugger - so do the other four clubs in the division, which LA won by two games last year. Given that the Dodgers' promising stable of young players is now a year older and a little more battle-tested, there is little reason to believe they can't contend again. The one thing the Dodgers hope to have that they didn't have much last year will be a healthy Rafael Furcal at the top of the lineup. They also have a more experienced Chad Billingsley at the front of the rotation. (Athlon)"

A big part of the Dodgers chances relies on a few players: rightfielder Matt Kemp, shortstop Rafael Furcal, pitcher Chad Billingsley, and catcher Russell Martin. There are plenty of other players on the team who will contribute to the Dodgers success - Loney, Ethier, Blake to name a few - but they aren't as integral to the team as these four, and none of them quite as much as Martin:

"How versatile and athletic is Russell Martin? He started eight games at thid base, led all major league catchers with 18 steals, and recorded at least 40 at-bats in each of the first six spots in the batting order. Throw in a second straight All-Star appearance at age 25 and there's a lot to like. Martin hates taking days off, but those 149 appearances at catcher took a physical and mental toll. His slugging percentage was .436 in the first half of the season, and .336 after the All-Star break. (Lindy's)"

The team isn't perfect, though, and the biggest question mark seems to be the pitching. With the losses of Lowe and Penny, the Dodgers lost a lot of veteran leadership and experience. It'll be up to Billingsley and 34-year-old, 2nd-year Japanese pitcher Kuroda to make up that difference.

"The key will be how the team's highly regarded young arms step in to fill the rotation needs - particularly the major void created by the loss of the durable and dependable Lowe. And Los Angeles needs to get some sort of contribution from right-hander Jason Schmidt, who's in the final season of a three-year, $47 million contract. The arm problems that have haunted Schmidt since his days in Pittsburgh have limited him to just six starts and 25.2 innings in two years with the Dodgers.

In just his third big-league season, right-hander Chad Billingsley led the Los Angeles rotation with 16 wins and a 3.14 ERA in 2008, but he also had the security blanket of Lowe being the No. 1 starter. Now the Dodgers are looking for Billingsley to take the next step forward and assume a leadership role on a staff where, barring any late free-agent signings, he'll rank second to Schmidt in terms of major league service time.
...
Kuroda came to Los Angeles a year ago and showed he could enjoy the pitching environment of Dodger Stadium (going 6-2 with a 3.68 ERA), but struggled to a 3-8 record on the road - although his ERA only rose to 3.78. (TSN)"

Spotlight Quote

From TSN's "View from the Other Dugout":

"The Dodgers have good young players and they are going to get better. What they went through last September only shows them what they are capable of. Yes, Manny Ramirez was a factor, but he was there the month of August, too, and that didn't make a difference. What happened with this team was Jeff Kent was removed from the equation. He got hurt, wasn't with the team and the young kids finally relaxed and found the game fun again. Once they did that it became misery for everybody they were playing."

Commentary

The biggest question about the Dodgers, and this is one that we can't fault the preview magazines for not knowing the answer to since we still don't know the answer, is whether or not Manny Ramirez will be wearing the Dodger blue at all this year. He provided such a spark for the club last year that it's hard not to credit their two-game division victory to him. If he does eventually sign with the Dodgers - and the smart money has that happening - then he will obviously be an asset, on and off the field. But the "Manny Watch" ends up obscuring one thing: while his signing will obviously help the team, it is not absolutely required to win the division.

In the weak NL West, the reigning division champions have a good chance at repeating. With their young talent in Russell Martin and Matt Kemp, and with the resigning of shortstop Rafael Furcal, the Dodgers have a solid lineup. Their rotation is suspect, however, especially in comparison to rival San Francisco's. The Dodgers may not be the perfect team, but in a weak division with no clear competition (Arizona falls into the category of "closest competititon" by default, it seems), they have every chance to win it. Of course, if they do end up signing Manny, then those chances only increase.

Guide Preview: Pittsburgh Pirates

The NL Central is an odd beast. It's the only division in baseball with six teams in it and while that doesn't make much of a difference on most days of the year, it does screw this guide preview schedule up. I mean, we should be starting this week off with a new division, but we still have one more NL Central team preview to do. So let's get it out of the way here, so we can move on to bigger and better things.

As before, this preview is meant to be a summary of what the three main baseball preview magazines are saying about the team's 2009 season. I've included quotes and other information from each of the them - Sporting News, Athlon, and Lindy's. I've also included some statistics about each magazines' success at predictions over the last ten years. Be sure to check out the Team-by-Team Season Preview index for other guide previews over the next few weeks.

My original intention was to completely refrain from providing any opinion. I was afraid that I would have too much to say about some teams and too little about others. But, after doing a few of these now, I feel like there's room for some personal commentary. I think it'll add a little bit of personality to the preview. But I don't want to make my opinion the focus of the post, so I'll put it near the end. Please feel free to ignore it; I've never claimed to be the most knowledgeable person when it comes to all 30 teams. With that said, on with the "combined" team preview for the...

Pittsburgh Pirates
Last Year: 67 - 95, 6th Place, NL Central

	Predictions			Since 1999
	This Year	Last Year		Avg Pred.	Avg Finish
Sporting News	6	6		4.875*	5*
Athlon	6	6		5.25**	4.875**
Lindy's	6	6		--	--

* Sporting News average includes preview guides from these years: 1999 - 2001, 2003 - 2004, 2006 - 2008
** Athlon average includes preview guides from these years: 1999 - 2003, 2006 - 2008

Team Notes

The Pirates are in a tough and unenviable position, having posted losing seasons for 16 consecutive years. Sadly for Pirates fans, it doesn't look like the club has the talent to end that streak. And with the Brewers and the Rays reaching the postseason last year, they're in some lonely company.

"Pittsburgh ran out of friends in low places last season. The Milwaukee Brewers reached the postseason for the first time in 25 years and the Tampa Bay Rays ended a run of 10 consecutive losing seasons with an American League championship. So the Pirates, who must trace their last winning season to 1992, have officially reached a league of their own. (TSN)"

The Pirates aren't entirely bereft of talent, though. Closer Matt Capps was a bright spot for the team, as was pitcher Paul Maholm, whose strong pitching was rewarded with only nine wins. And then there's centerfielder Nate McLouth, the single All-Star caliber outfielder that the club decided to keep from the three they had at midseason last year.

"Nate McLouth emerged as a force in the lineup with his ability to get on base and score runs. And his power numbers, helped by PNC Park's left-handed-friendly right field, were a welcome addition. He also won a Gold Glove and should return as the anchor in center field. However, Andrew McCutchen, the team's top draft pick in 2005, could push himself into the mix with a strong spring training. In that case, McLouth could shift to left field, where his speed could help him cover all that ground in the home confines. (Athlon)"

But the organization needs to concern itself with much more than just this year in order to turn itself around. This may not sound super-appealing to Pirates' fans, who will likely have to endure a professional sports-record 17th consecutive losing season this year. If those same fans want to see this streak stop sometime before it hits 25 consecutive years, though, they should be thankful for the words and actions that the club's new management are responsible for.

"Another new Pirates regime says it is committed to rebuilding this time from the majors down into the farm system, which is considered one of the weakest in baseball. In fact, the highlight of the year may have been signing first-round draft pick Pedro Alvarez, regarded as the best hitter available. He led one of the Pirates' best drafts in years, after the team had long allowed money to be the overriding factor in their selections. This time Pittsburgh handed out a major league contract worth at least $6,335,000 to Alvarez - the Vanderbilt third baseman who signed after contentious negotiations with agent Scott Boras - and gave big bonuses to a number of touted high school players.
...
The Pirates have wavered during other rebuilding phases, either giving up on youngsters too soon or becoming impatient and signing mediocre veterans in hopes of a quick fix. This time, they say they will stay the course, even if it means winding up as the holder of a dubious record. (Lindy's)"

Spotlight Quote

Athlon's final analysis of the Pittsburgh Pirates:

"Pirates fans get tired of hearing and reading this, but there's much more work to do before this team has a winning season, let alone becomes a contender in the NL Central. It's difficult to see this team making any great strides towards overtaking Chicago, Milwaukee, St. Louis and Houston this season. Again, what happens below the major league level will have more bearing on the future of this organization than what happens at the big league level. In short, a record-setting 17th consecutive losing season looms here."

Commentary

I really feel bad for the fans of the Pittsburgh Pirates. It's pretty clear, from watching Steelers games and Penguins games, that this is a town that wants to support its teams. But the organization hasn't exactly been trotting out the finest product over the years, and that can't help but affect the support it receives. There is some talent on this team, but too much of it is unproven. Until these stars can prove themselves year-in and year-out, unlike, say, Tom Gorzelanny or Ian Snell, and until the organization proves its willingness to hold onto this talent, unlike, say, Jason Bay, it's hard to predict much success for the Pirates. Hopefully, 2009 will be an obvious and much-needed first step in this direction.

Some Things I Wish I Wrote

I came across a couple of blog posts yesterday that I wish I had written. Since I didn't, I figured I'd do the next best thing and send along the links.

First, there's this "History Lesson" from John over at Only Baseball Matters. He takes a look a Sports Illustrated article titled "Problems in a Turned-On World". The article's synopsis says this:

"The pill, capsule, vial and needle have become fixtures of the locker room as athletes increasingly turn to drugs in the hope of improving performances. This trend—one that poses a major threat to U.S. sport even though the Establishment either ignores or hushes up the issue—is explored here in Part I of a series"

The amazing thing about this article is its date: June 23, 1969! Here's a great quote from John's blog post:

"Bob Gibson? He’s one of the heroes these guys keep going on and on about. He’s one of those guys who would never, ever have used steroids, right, Lupica?

…. “We occasionally use Dexamyl and Dexedrine [amphetamines]…. We also use barbiturates, Seconal, Tuinal, Nembutal…. We also use some anti-depressants, Triavil, Tofranil, Valium…. But I don’t think the use of drugs is as prevalent in the Midwest as it is on the East and West coasts,” said Dr. I. C. Middleman, who, until his death last September, was team surgeon for the St. Louis baseball Cardinals.

Team surgeon? TEAM SURGEON!!!! How could that be? How could it be that the teams knew anything about this? The owners are paragons of virtue, men of impeccable character, who want nothing more than for the players to be healthy, happy and living on the same block as their sons and daughters, right?"

In the comments over there, Keith Smith mentions a couple of other SI articles worth taking a look at: Bil Gilbert's "Something Extra On the Ball", from June 30, 1969, and Terry Todd's "The Steroid Predicament" from August 1, 1983. They're all worth reading. If I find anymore, I'll definitely post them here.

Sadly, I was planning on writing a similar post myself, but now that this one has been written so well, there's no need. Make sure to check it out. (Hat tip to Baseball Musings for finding this.)

Secondly, and on a lighter note, comes "The Hollywood All-Stars" from Ron over at Baseball Over Here. Now this is something I hadn't thought of before, but, boy, do I wish I had! Inspired by a post he found over at RootZoo that tried to come up with the best possible baseball team team using only cinematic ballplayers, Ron took it a step further and filled out the 40-man roster.

It's a fun post, and makes you think some: minor league veteran Crash Davis or former major league All-Star Jake Taylor? Billy Chapel, the Maddux-like pitcher from For Love of the Game, or Nuke LaLoosh, the Randy Johnson-clone from Bull Durham? All-around talent Kelly Leak or masher Pedro Cerrano? And does Roger Dorn really belong at third? Some other names I'd throw out: from For Love of the Game, Gus Sinski at catcher (John C. Reilly's character) and Davis Birch in center (a Griffey-like figure), and from Brewster's Millions, Montgomery Brewster (pitcher) and Spike Nolan (catcher), though they weren't all that great. I also think that Joe Riggins, manager of the Durham Bulls, should get a shot at being on the coaching staff. But Ron did a pretty good job of filling that roster out. If you can think of anyone else, let him know.

Thanks for those great posts, guy. As I said before, those are definitley two posts that I wish I had done myself. Good job.

Seattle's Hall of Fame Trio

With the news yesterday of Ken Griffey, Jr. reuniting with the Seattle Mariners, and with that small press conference that Alex Rodriguez called earlier in the week, it seems that the late-90s Seattle Mariners have been given an inordinate amount of press recently. Throw in Randy Johnson's debut in the Giants' spring training this week, and it seems like the perfect time to take a look back at that fantastic group of players.

Now, I have no doubt whatsoever that I'm not the first person to revisit that triumvirate of all-time greats, and I don't want to leave that impression. Still, I do find it fascinating that one franchise could have so many no-doubt Hall of Famers playing together at such a young age, especially in this era.

In 1998, the last year that these three played together, this is what Seattle had: a 23-year-old Alex Rodriguez, who had made the All-Star team in each of his first 2 full seasons and who had a Silver Slugger award and a top-10 MVP finish (finishing 2nd in 1996); the reigning AL MVP in 28-year-old Ken Griffey, Jr, who had also won 8 consecutive Gold Glove awards; and a 34-year-old Randy Johnson, who had finished in the top-3 in Cy Young voting in 4 of the last 5 years (he was injured for most of 1996). It's a fantastic core of players to have, and may in fact be the best trio of talent in 40 or 50 years, especially when you consider their all-around talent and their respective places in history at their positions (I suppose the Orioles and Reds of the 1970s might have a case). And then when you think of what they've accomplished since then - Johnson's 5 total Cy Young awards, 295 career wins and 4,789(!) career strikeouts, Griffey's 611 career home runs and career 138 OPS+, and A-Rod's 3 MVPs, 553 career home runs, career .306 batting average, and 147 OPS+, all at the age of 32 - it becomes almost unfathomable. Not to tease Mariners fans, but: if the team could have afforded to give $45 million dollars to those three guys each year... well, it's hard to imagine.

But I'm not here to look at what-ifs. Fans of Seattle were treated to one of the greatest collections of talent ever in the mid- to late-90s, and they should feel pretty grateful for that. Plus, they did end up acquiring one of the most exciting players ever just a couple of years later with Ichiro!, and that 116-win season wasn't too shabby either. I'm not grieving for the what-could've-been-Mariners. Instead, I thought it'd be fun to take a look back at that team and see what people were saying about it at the time. This, of course, means that we'll be looking at preview guides from 1998. I also want to see what had been said about each of these guys when they first joined the club, so I'll take a look at a couple of preview guides from the early '90s.

Ken Griffey, Jr.
Anyone aware of baseball back in 1989 remembers the excitement of the Kid joining the Mariners. From his Upper Deck #1 card to his big-kid smile, he was a big deal. And now that he's back with the club, people seem to welcome the nostalgia it brings, even while acknowledging his diminished skills. He was far from "diminished" as a 19-year-old, though:

"A star was born in Seattle last spring [in 1989] and there's no telling how bright it will get.
...
Griffey was having a Rookie of the Year season (.287, 13 home runs, 45 runs batted in) before breaking a bone in his right hand in a freak injury at a Chicago hotel July 24. He batted only .214 with three homers and 16 RBIs after retuning to the lineup, but his defense in center field didn't suffer. Griffey wound up with 12 assists, fifth best among AL outfielders, and finished third in AL Rookie of the Year voting."

And, by the time 1998 rolled around, Griffey was a reigning MVP and widely considered the best player in baseball.

"The Mariners will be strong up the middle again, especially in center field, where the premier player in the game roams. An injury-free season helped Griffey reach MVP status, and he should continue to get better."

Randy Johnson
Acquired from the Expos in 1989 as part of the Mark Langston trade, it took a few years for the 6'10" lefty to grow into his body. But when he finally did, and he started throwing that slider to offset his 99 MPH fastball, it was all over for Major League Baseball. The Big Unit was the first of the trio to leave, in a trade to the Astros at the 1998 trade deadline (due to his impending free agency). When healthy, he has been utterly fantastic since then. His Cy Young awards and World Series ring will attest to that. He'll likely finish his career in San Francisco this year, pitching by the Bay and waiting for his 300th career win. It may not be the nostalgia trip that Kid Griffey in Seattle is, but it'll still be a sight to see. As a newly arrived 26-year-old prospect from the Langston trade, though, it was hard to know if he would ever live up to that potential.

"The trade of Langston to the Expos netted the Mariners two of their projected starters in the '90s - lefthander Randy Johnson and righthander Brian Holman.

Johnson, 26, is the tallest pitcher (6-foot-10) in major league history and throws the fastest fastball on the staff. However, he showed flashes of wildness with 70 walks in 131 innings with the Mariners. To be a big winner, he must cut down on the free passes."

Johnson did learn to control his wildness, and it led to a dominance that no one could hope to predict. When his free agent year rolled around in 1998, Johnson had already established himself as one of the top pitchers of his generation and Seattle was placed in the unenviable position of having to decide how best to capitalize on it.

"The Mariners probably made a huge mistake during the offseason by not at least offering Johnson a contract extension beyond the '98 season. The snub not only angered Johnson and made him feel unappreciated, it also caused an uproar among many of the fans who turned out in record numbers (3.2 million) last season. Fortunately, [GM Woody] Woodward rejected trade offers that didn't include a No. 1 starter in return, and Johnson should begin the season anchoring a strong rotation that includes fellow lefties Jamie Moyer and Jeff Fassero and promising righthander Ken Cloude.

Even at 34 and coming off career-threatening back surgery, Johnson proved that 'The Big Unit' was back and possibly better than ever. He won 20 games for the first time and twice struck out 19 batters in a game. And he underscored his value with a 12-1 record and four no-decisions in starts following a Mariners loss. Although Johnson insists his determination and work ethic won't change, the front office's snub could become a distraction during the regular season, especially if Johnson still is with the Mariners near the July 31 trading deadline."

Alex Rodriguez
The top pick in the 1993 draft, A-Rod was a scout's fantasy, with his ability to hit, field, and run. He was so good, in fact, that he was able to break the big league roster at age 19 at the toughest defensive position on the field. It was shades of Griffey, and he didn't disappoint.

"The much-anticipated Rodriguez era at shortstop finally begins. Rodriguez, 20, the first player selected in the 1993 draft, has shuffled between the majors and minors the past two seasons. The regular job is his to lose, and there is no question the interior defense will be stronger with Rodriguez at short. His range is good, and his arm is powerful and accurate."

The youngest of these three players, Rodriguez had only two full seasons with the club by the time Johnson's free agent year arrived. Still, his 1996 campaign, his first full season, proved to most people that the Mariners had something special.

"For most players, a .300 average, 23 homers, and 84 RBIs is more than acceptable. But for shortstop Alex Rodriguez, it was a significant decline in all three offensive categories from 1996. Rodriguez is liable to throw another eye-popping season together in '98 and a 30/30 season is within reach."

Johnson was traded to the Astros at the 1998 trade deadline for Freddy Garcia and Carlos Guillen, and nearly led the Astros to the World Series all by himself. Griffey was traded to the Reds a few months after the 1999 season, also in anticipation of free agency. After forcing the M's to work a deal with the Reds (and Reds alone), the club did the best it could, receiving Mike Cameron, Brett Tomko, and a couple of minor leaguers in return. And, finally, Rodriguez left after the 2000 season, signing the largest contract in history with the Texas Rangers (and then we all know what happened after that). It was a sad string of seasons for the Mariners and their fans, but it does not undermine the fact that, for a few years at least, every Mariners fan got to enjoy one of the best sets of teammates in history. It's hard to complain about that.

Guide Preview: Cincinnati Reds

Next up in the team preview series is the Cincinnati Reds. The Reds had an underwhelming year in 2008 under the new management of Dusty Baker. The squad had gone into the season hoping for big years from some of their young talent, including Joey Votto, Jay Bruce, and Edinson Volquez. Votto and Bruce both played well enough to finish in the top five in the Rookie of the Year voting, but it wasn't enough to help the Reds finish out of the second division. Cincinnati may have to count on even bigger years from those talented youngsters if they're hoping to move up in the congested NL Central.

As before, this preview is meant to be a summary of what the three main baseball preview magazines are saying about the team's 2009 season. I've included quotes and other information from each of the them - Sporting News, Athlon, and Lindy's. I've also included some statistics about each magazines' success at predictions over the last ten years. Be sure to check out the Team-by-Team Season Preview index for other guide previews over the next few weeks.

My original intention was to completely refrain from providing any opinion. I was afraid that I would have too much to say about some teams and too little about others. But, after doing a few of these now, I feel like there's room for some personal commentary. I think it'll add a little bit of personality to the preview. But I don't want to make my opinion the focus of the post, so I'll put it near the end. Please feel free to ignore it; I've never claimed to be the most knowledgeable person when it comes to all 30 teams. With that said, on with the "combined" team preview for the...

Cincinnati Reds
Last Year: 74 - 88, 5th Place, NL Central

	Predictions			Since 1999
	This Year	Last Year		Avg Pred.	Avg Finish
Sporting News	4	4		4.375*	3.875*
Athlon	5	2		3.875**	3.75**
Lindy's	4	5		--	--

* Sporting News average includes preview guides from these years: 1999 - 2001, 2003 - 2004, 2006 - 2008
** Athlon average includes preview guides from these years: 1999 - 2003, 2006 - 2008

Team Notes

With three Cincinnati players earning Rookie of the Year votes last year (two of them legitimately), Reds fans have a lot to cheer for. Joey Votto and Jay Bruce are legitimate players who, if given the proper room to grow, can help this team immensely. But, in the meantime, the team's low on-base percentage (third-worst in the NL) and shaky pitching staff make it hard to win consistently.

"When the Reds traded veteran sluggers Ken Griffey Jr. and Adam Dunn last season, it signaled a change in the team's direction. Now, the headliners are Jay Bruce, Brandon Phillips, Edinson Volquez and Joey Votto. That's an impressive core, and the Reds might contend for a wild card spot if their pitching comes together. But after eight consecutive losing seasons, their fans have reason to be skeptical. The Reds have not truly contended in a decade, and they still seem closer to last place than first. (Athlon)"

The Reds also hope that with (nearly) a year in Cincinnati under their belts, GM Walt Jocketty and Manager Dusty Baker will have a better grasp of the team and its needs.

"Jocketty and Baker are proven winners. Jocketty was the architect of the Cardinals' World Series winner in 2006 while Baker won NL Manager of the Year award with both the Giants and Cubs. While neither may want to wait on a youth movement, the Reds have no choice but to let their talented core of newcomers continue to develop, especially with a payroll in the $75 million range that prevents them from adding significant help. (Lindy's)"

Besides the continued development of Votto and Bruce, the biggest key to the Reds' season is the starting rotation. If everything goes well, they will be division contenders. If not, then the Reds' offensive struggles will have a lot to overcome.

"A starting rotation of Aaron Harang, Bronson Arroyo, [Edinson] Volquez, and Johnny Cueto remains in search of a fifth starter. Top prospect Homer Bailey disappointed last season, barely squeezing 36.1 innings from eight starts. ... Harang emerged as the staff mystery. After going 43-30 in 677.2 innings the previous three seasons, he suffered a loss of velocity, fell to 6-17 and watched his ERA explode from 3.73 to 4.78. Harang also surrendered a career-high 35 home runs, 19 before the fourth inning. A rebound from one of the game's most underrated piitchers is a must for the Reds to surprise. (TSN)"

Spotlight Quote

A scout's "View From the Other Dugout" in TSN:

"The Reds are finally rid of (Ken) Griffey's contract and are no longer committed to Adam Dunn's big money. They seem ready to become a faster, more-athletic offense. They're certainly younger with (Chris) Dickerson, (Edwin) Encarnacion, (Homer) Bailey and (Joey) Votto. Encarnacion is still an inconsistent and mostly pull hitter. The other guys, especially (Jay) Bruce and Votto, are gifted but still learning on the fly. Brandon Phillips is very athletic... a 30-30 guy. Willy Taveras gives them a stolen-base threat, though his on-base percentage isn't what you'd want from a leadoff guy. There's still a lot of work to do here..."

Commentary

There was a lot made last year about the Reds' up-and-coming prospects. But when Homer Bailey and Joey Votto struggled out of the gate, the press seemed to write off the ballclub. Granted, the team never seemed to get off the ground, with their third-lowest on-base percentage, but it definitely wasn't the kids' fault. Votto and Bruce had legitimate ROY seasons, and Edinson Volquez also put up some good numbers in his first full season. And now that the Reds have gotten rid of their big contracts, they may actually be forced into following this youth movement. However, Dusty Baker's penchant for sticking with below-average veterans over young prospects (Corey Patterson last year, likely Willy Taveras this year), and his overuse of bullpen arms may threaten that much-needed move.

As a fan of baseball and the NL Central, I hope the Reds figure out a way to get the most out of all of these talented players, but I'm not sure they can do it this year. The youngsters are good, but they may need another year or two before we're voting them into the All-Star game regularly. When you couple that with Dusty Baker and his veterans-only philosophy, it just seems like something that will take more than two years to get going. I suspect that they'll be fighting with the Astros for fourth place.

Guide Preview: Houston Astros

Our trip through the NL Central next brings us to the Houston Astros. They had an interesting season last year, nearly bottoming out in the first half of the season before tearing off to the best record in baseball over the second half. Surprisingly, they finished the year in third place. It might be hard to replicate that, though.

As before, this preview is meant to be a summary of what the three main baseball preview magazines are saying about the team's 2009 season. I've included quotes and other information from each of the them - Sporting News, Athlon, and Lindy's. I've also included some statistics about each magazines' success at predictions over the last ten years. Be sure to check out the Team-by-Team Season Preview index for other guide previews over the next few weeks.

My original intention was to completely refrain from providing any opinion. I was afraid that I would have too much to say about some teams and too little about others. But, after doing a few of these now, I feel like there's room for some personal commentary. I think it'll add a little bit of personality to the preview. But I don't want to make my opinion the focus of the post, so I'll put it near the end. Please feel free to ignore it; I've never claimed to be the most knowledgeable person when it comes to all 30 teams. With that said, on with the "combined" team preview for the...

Houston Astros
Last Year: 86 - 75, 3rd Place, NL Central

	Predictions			Since 1999
	This Year	Last Year		Avg Pred.	Avg Finish
Sporting News	5	3		2*	2.375*
Athlon	3	4		2.5**	2.375**
Lindy's	5	3		--	--

* Sporting News average includes preview guides from these years: 1999 - 2001, 2003 - 2004, 2006 - 2008
** Athlon average includes preview guides from these years: 1999 - 2003, 2006 - 2008

Team Notes

In 2008, the Astros followed their recent history to a 'T', playing so poorly in the first half that people wondered when rookie manager Cecil Cooper would be fired, but then turning things around in such a way that Cooper ended the season with Manager of the Year votes. The "yo-yo" nature of the Astros' play makes them a tough team to predict, as it's hard to know how legitimate the team is. Fittingly enough, though, this style of play reflects the construction of the team quite well. With two of the top players in the league at their respective positions, it seems like the Astros should always be in the playoff hunt.

"Pitching with a sore hip, Oswalt stood 6-8 with a 4.77 ERA ater a June 25 loss last summer. Coincidentally, the Astros were 36-42. The Houston ace then finished on an 11-2 tear accompanied by a 2.10 ERA. The Astros followed suit, finishing 50-33.
...
'I'd rate Berkman among the top three hitters in the NL. He's a better hitter left-handed than right-handed, but is dangerous from both sides. ... An underrated athlete, Berkman's also really improved his defense at first base.' (TSN)"

But the team is much more than Oswalt and Berkman, and the remaining 23 players don't quite match up. And while some of them may have their strengths, they definitely have their weaknesses too.

"Even with [Carlos] Lee healthy for the whole season, the Astros still have too many holes in their lineup offensively, particularly at catcher and in center field. [Michael] Bourn's speed is useless if he can't get on base. That would make [Kaz] Matsui the lead-off hitter. Similar to Bourn, he doesn't walk often enough. The 7-8-9 spots in the batting order appear to be pretty weak. Houston needs someone after Oswalt to become a solid No. 2 starter and win 15 games. The rest of the rotation is a crapshoot. No matter how well the bullpen pitches, it can't win many games pitching from behind. The Astros will definitely need some breaks, and major contributions by veterans such as [Darin] Erstad, [Geoff] Blum, and [Mike] Hampton to make the playoffs. (Athlon)"

This comes as no surprise to people following the Astros, though. And it doesn't seem to be a surprise to GM Ed Wade or owner Drayton McLane. What is a surprise, though, is how they are addressing these issues by closing their pocketbook. These are definitely tough economic times, and you can't really blame them. But it does make it tough for the Astros to compete.

"Astros owner Drayton McLane says the organization will never use the term 'rebuild' as long as he owns the club, and that proved true last season. A team that others certainly would have characterized as rebuilding ended up contending for the playoffs until the very end.
...
The Astros, though, are in a tough spot going forward. A farm system that has helped them post winning seasons in seven of last eight years and 14 of the last 16 has run dry, and McLane doesn't want to spend the money to buy all the help they need on the free-agent market. At the same time, though, McLane would never allow Wade to trade one of the team's big stars to bring back several young players who would help the Astros shore up an aging roster that has its share of holes. So Wade will have to do the best he can through smaller trades and secondary free agents to fill the stars. (Lindy's)"

Spotlight Quote

An interesting note from the "Beyond the Box Score" section of the Athlon:

"Age Before Beauty: The Astros have several seasoned players, led by reliever Doug Brocail, who will turn 42 in May. Righthander Brian Moehler is 37, lefthander Mike Hampton will be 37 in September, reliever LaTroy Hawkins is 36, and third baseman Geoff Blum will be 36 in April, shortstop Miguel Tejada will be 35 in May and outfielder Darin Erstad will be 35 in June."

But, more importantly, is this note from the "Scouts' Snapshot" section of the Lindy's:

"They might be the hardest team in baseball to predict this season. On one hand, they should be able to contend with guys like Roy Oswalt, Lance Berkman and Carlos Lee on their roster. Then you see them relying heavily on guys like Brian Moehler and Michael Bourn, and you figure there is no way they can even be competitive. Flip a coin, I suppose."

Commentary

Honestly, I don't tend to think too much about the Astros. With the Cubs and Brewers near the top of the division, they always seem to be an afterthought. Of course, I know that isn't necessarily the brightest perception to have, especially after they turned things around so drastically in the second half last year (plus, they did play in the World Series a couple of years back). I agree with that last note from the Lindy's magazine, though: while the Astros do have some top-caliber stars, with Oswalt, Berkman, and Lee, they have too many average or below-average players getting significant playing time. In a situation like that, I just can't trust the team. The fact that they're tightening their belts so much in these tough times (despite being in one of the biggest markets in baseball) does not help my optimism. I just can't trust them placing higher than 4th place. If everything goes right for them, it's possible, but I wouldn't put money on it.