High Win Shares, Low Hall of Fame Votes

For those who have been living under a rock for the last week or so, the Hall of Fame vote for the class of 2009 was announced on Monday. At the top of the list were leadoff hitter extraordinaire and Man of Steal Rickey Henderson and "the most feared hitter" of his day Jim Rice. They'll be finding themselves at Cooperstown's doorstep come July. It's not the top of the list that I'm interested in, however. After all, we'll be remembering who topped the vote for the rest of eternity.

But that's not the case for those on the bottom of the list. For players like Mo Vaughn or David Cone, who fell off the ballot this year for receiving less than 5% of the vote, their time in the Hall of Fame spotlight is over. And while it's probably an accurate reflection of their career - does anyone really believe that David Cone is a Hall of Famer? - that doesn't mean that they had bad careers. In fact, if you look at their careers as a whole, those two actually had productive careers. Despite that, they fell off the HOF ballot this year because of very low vote totals. Which got me thinking, what player had the best career while receiving the lowest Hall of Fame support?

First off, players like Harold Baines or Dale Murphy are disqualified from this discussion because, even though they're getting low vote totals every year, they're still getting enough votes to stay on the ballot. Any player who gets enough support to stay on the ballot for even one additional year is getting too much support for the purpose of this list. Second, we need to decide on a metric to use to measure the player's career. For ease of use, I'll be using Win Shares. I understand that there are limitations and biases with Win Shares, but it's a solid enough stat and helps us get at what we need right now.

What I'm looking for, then, is which players had the highest career Win Shares while receiving the fewest Hall of Fame votes. The data gets a little cluttered when you look at it because the "<5% and you're out" rule didn't exist originally (in fact, I'm a little unclear about when it showed up because, for example, George Foster only received 3.5% of the vote in 1994 but stayed on the ballot). It can still produce some good lists, though.

I'm using the Lahman database and a spreadsheet compiled by Keith Hemmelman at the Baseball Databank Yahoo Group to create these lists. I'm also only looking at voted from 1950 and on, since the voting in the prior years is so scattered.

Let's start out with players who were on the ballot and received zero votes:

Most Career Win Shares by Players Receiving Zero HOF Votes (since 1950)
Player..............Year..Win Shares...Votes
Jimmy Wynn..........1983....305........0
Ken Singleton.......1990....302........0
Amos Otis...........1990....286........0
Ron Fairly..........1984....269........0
Roy White...........1985....263........0
Gary Matthews.......1993....257........0
Wally Joyner........2007....253........0
Cecil Cooper........1993....241........0
Dick McAuliffe......1981....241........0
Frank Tanana........1991....241........0

In 1990, both Jim Palmer and Joe Morgan were elected into the Hall, and in 1993 Reggie Jackson was voted in. Those slam-dunk candidates could explain why a few players from these years dropped off the ballot so quickly.

Most Career Win Shares by Players Receiving a Single HOF Vote (since 1950)
Player..............Year..Win Shares...Votes
Sherry Magee........1950*...354........1
Stan Hack...........1956....316........1
Fielder Jones.......1950*...290........1
Bob Elliott.........1962*...287........1
Bob Johnson.........1956....287........1
Jack Quinn..........1956*...287........1
Toby Harrah.........1992....287........1
Dixie Walker........1962*...278........1
Rocky Colavito......1975....273........1
Heinie Groh.........1954*...272........1
* indicates received low-tally votes in multiple years

Hank Greenberg and Joe Cronin were both elected into the Hall in 1956. There were no further BBWAA inductions until Bob Feller and Jackie Robinson in 1962. Clearly, there was something going on at this time in the Hall. I'll need to look into that. It doesn't affect our lists though.

Most Career Win Shares by Players Receiving a Two HOF Votes (since 1950)
Player..............Year..Win Shares...Votes
Jose Cruz...........1994....313........2
Brian Downing.......1998....298........2
Cesar Cedeno........1992....296........2
Brett Butler........2003....295........2
George Burns........1950*...290........2
Joe Judge...........1955*...270........2
Bobby Bonilla.......2007....267........2
Bill Freehan........1982....267........2
Wilbur Cooper.......1952*...266........2
Augie Galan.........1968....263........2
* indicates received low-tally votes in multiple years

A number of players who appeared on the "Single HOF Vote" list, like Sherry Magee, Fielder Jones, and Bob Elliott, also qualified to appear on the "Two HOF Votes" list since there wasn't a "drop off" rule back then. I only included those players on one of the two tables, however (whichever list they appeared on first).

And now, since I can't put up a table like this for every single-digit HOF vote, here's a list of some other players with low-tally votes and large career Win Share values.

Notable Low HOF Votes for Players with Large Career Win Share Values
Player..............Year..Win Shares...Votes
Bill Dahlen.........1938....394........1
Darrell Evans.......1995....363........8
Lou Whitaker........2001....351........15
Dwight Evans........1999....347........18
Dick Allen..........1983....342........14
Bobby Grich.........1992....329........11
Jack Clark..........1998....316........7
Norm Cash...........1980....315........6
Ted Simmons.........1994....315........17
Willie Randolph.....1998....312........5

Bill Dahlen is actually the player with the highest career Win Shares, non-Pete Rose or non-Shoeless Joe Division, who is not in the Hall that I could find. He isn't on any of the other lists, though, because he received his vote in 1938, well before my 1950 cut-off.

There's likely an interesting story for each player on this last list about why he was dropped from Hall consideration so soon. Dick Allen has his attitude problems. Norm Cash had one great season and probably seemed sub-par every other year because of that. Ted Simmons was neither Johnny Bench nor Carlton Fisk. But then there's Dwight Evans and Bobby Grich and Lou Whitaker, all great players with great careers who were ignored anyway. I'm not even going to try to go into their stories - there are other people on the internet much more knowledgable about each of them than me.

Whatever the case was that caused each of these players to fall from consideration so quickly, I think it's a good thing to go back and consider their careers every now and then. Sure, none of them are Hank Aaron or Willie Mays, but they're not Mario Mendoza or Joe Schlabotnik either. In fact, it's pretty likely that a lot of these players had some big fans in their day who were quite devastated when their hero was dropped so unceremoniously. With that kind of support, it's only fair that we try to keep their memories alive, if even for just a little bit.

Past Products: Franklin Fantasy Baseball Analyst

Looking through an old preview guide from 1994 that I just recently acquired, I came across this excellent two-page advertisement for the Franklin Fantasy Baseball Analyst. Franklin is probably best known for those pocket electronic dictionaries that all of us geeky kids thought were way-too-cool in the sixth grade (like calculator watches, for some reason), but apparently they started branching out into "digital books" around this time, and this Fantasy Baseball Analyst was one of their "books" (or "software") available.

(click on image to see full-size)

With the Franklin Fantasy Baseball Analyst, you can: (remember, this is 1994)

• View career stats for all current major league players
• Query the data for specific stats, such as "What middle infielders in 1993 had at least a .250 average, 10 home runs, 50 RBIs, and 10 stolen bases?"
• Rank players by any combination or ratio of two dozen performance categories
• and more...

In all seriousness, I think this was a pretty cool product for its time. If I had had the means (and if I hadn't been 13 years old), it would've been a tempting buy. The price is a little steep, though. If it were merely $49.95 , then I wouldn't be complaining, but $49.95 a month for five months does push it pretty far. It does come with a free All-Star break data update, though, and that "charter renewal rate" of $49.95 per year does seem enticing...

I wouldn't mind finding one of these on ebay, though, and playing around with it. The closest I can find right now are this baseball encyclopedia and this Digital Book System (without the Fantasy Baseball Analyst). I wonder how many of these they even sold.

Prospect Preview: 1994

The upcoming season marks the fifteenth anniversary of the strike-shortened 1994 season. There's a lot of things to remember about that season - the canceled World Series, Tony Gwynn's run at .400, Matt Williams' 43 home runs in 112 games - but what no one seems to remember from that year are the postseason awards. Sure, some of us remember Maddux's third consecutive Cy Young, or Bagwell's lone MVP award, and we can all go over and check out the list at Baseball Reference, but the award winners are usually the last thing on our mind when we think of '94. It's almost as if, with the canceled World Series, we forget that the rest of the season was ever "officially" wrapped up.

But it was, and one of those awards that was handed out that November was the Rookie of the Year award. Raul Mondesi took home the third of five consecutive awards given to Dodgers' rookies, and, for those of us not living in Kansas City or members of the immediate Hamelin family, the illustrious Bob Hamelin of the Kansas City Royals took home the award in the AL.

The winners of the 1994 Rookie of the Year award are less than memorable fifteen years later, but that doesn't mean that there were no memorable rookies breaking into the bigs. Here's a look at the 1994 Sporting News preview guide, and the players that they highlighted as top prospects:

Alex Rodriguez: "Top pick in last June's draft could be in bigs by September"

As with other 1990s TSN preview guides, the 1994 guide gave only brief scouting reports for each team's top prospects. This is the synopsis given to A-Rod. It seems a little underwhelming, considering he has become the highest paid player in baseball history and, arguably, the best player in baseball.

Javier Lopez: "The Braves are sufficiently committed to the 23-year-old Lopez that they released Greg Olson and did not offer a contract to Damon Berryhill, the veteran catching duo they employed in '93. Catching an established pitching staff this season should help Lopez, who still needs to work on his defense but has the arm strength necessary to play the position. Offensively, he has blossomed the last two seasons, hitting a combined .314 in Classes AAA and AA with 33 home runs, 51 doubles and 134 RBIs."

The magazine also highlights the top five Rookie of the Year contenders from each league, including a longer report on each of them. Javy Lopez was one of the NL's top five rookie contenders this year, and he actually finished the season 10th in ROY voting. The scouting report seems fairly spot on, praising his offense and giving a mild warning about his defense. Maybe Braves fans would be able to say more about it than me, but that sounds about right.

Carlos Delgado: "Management is more certain about the hitting of Carlos Delgado, who clubbed 25 homers en route to winning Most Valuable Player honors in the Class AA Southern League. The 21-year-old Delgado is still being tutored on his defense, but there's little doubt that Delgado will get some playing time in Toronto this year."

Another top catching prospect of the year, Delgado was actually close enough to the majors that this preview was included in the Blue Jays section and not just the "prospects" section. Delgado didn't actually make it to the majors as a regular player until 1996, however, and he only ever played in 2 games behind the plate (one in '93 and one in '94). Regardless, I doubt that any Toronto or New York fans are really complaining about his catching prowess.

Armando Benitez: "Has powerful fastball that a legitimate stopper must have."

"Also has the uncanny ability to give up mammoth home runs in the biggest possible moments." (Okay, please forgive the snark. Let's just say that I am not a big Armando Benitez fan.)

Manny Ramirez: "With or without Manny Ramirez, the Indians have every right to be excited about their outfield.

Named Baseball America's Minor League Player of the Year after hitting a combined 31 homers between Class AA Canton/Akron and Class AAA Charlotte, Ramirez hit two home runs and a double at Yankee Stadium in his second big-league game. However, his fortunes took a steep decline and he finished his brief major league stint with a .170 average. Ramirez, 21, likely will polish his considerable skills in Class AAA, possibly getting another crack at the majors late in the season."

And, of course, we have to end with Manny. Like Delgado, this scouting report was included alongside the rest of the Indians lineup, indicating just how promising he was as a young kid. Manny did start the '94 season on Cleveland's roster, and he came out swinging, hitting .312/.397/.672 in April. He slowed down as the summer began, but he was hitting .269/.357.521 with 17 HR and 60 RBI as August began. His season ended prematurely, though, in early August, and I can only imagine it was due to injury (though I can't find anything to verify that). Despite that, Manny finished a very respectable 2nd place in ROY voting. It was the first in a long string of years that Manny's offensive prowess, defensive struggles, and personality "quirks" were on full display to the world, for better or worse. I'll take "better."

Past Future Hall of Famers

Well, tomorrow afternoon sometime the BBWAA will announce the Hall of Fame class for 2009. The smart money has Rickey headlining the class, and Jim Rice following him through in his last year on the ballot. Someone like Bert Blyleven or Andre Dawson might squeak in too, though that's pretty unlikely.

This seems like the perfect time, then, to take a look back at the 1992 Sporting News preview guide and their article "Countdown to Cooperstown?". The article polls the 26 TSN sportswriters and asks each of them what they think the chances are of 70 or so contemporary players to make it into the Hall eventually. They describe the article thusly:

"After the 1991 season, The Sporting News polled its baseball correspondents - whose votes help decide who is elected by the BBWAA - to determine who has a lock on Hall of Fame enshrinement and who needs to turn up the volume.
...
We looked at players either active or recently retired with at least six years of big-league service (no minor league duty in those seasons and thus no Will Clark or Ruben Sierra)."

That last sentence should give you an idea of what era we're talking about. Players on the "ballot" included: Jose Canseco, Dwight Gooden, Steve Garvey, Tony Gwynn, Steve Carlton, Dan Quisenberry, Roger Clemens, Cal Ripken, and a whole lot more. Some of these players had only 6 or 7 years MLB experience at the time, so the voters were being asked to make some serious guesses, while others had 20+ years of experience. Regardless, looking back at this article 17 years later, when the vast majority of the ballplayers on the list have retired and most have already become eligible for the Hall, it becomes an interesting snapshot about how some players were perceived at or near the end of their careers.

For example, by the end of 1991, Nolan Ryan had already been pitching for 25 years and, although he still had two more seasons in him, it was clear that he had punched his ticket into Cooperstown - all 26 writers voted him as a "Shoo-In" for the Hall. On the other hand, Tommy John had already been retired for over two years (and was still three years away from being on the official ballot), but the writers had no real clear answer about his HOF chances. Of the 26 ballots, he received zero "Shoo-In" votes, seven "Good Chance" votes, seven "Doubtful" votes, one "No Chance" vote, and eleven "Even Money" votes. Clearly, the writers of the day were unsure of John's place in baseball history, and that uncertainty has played out over the last 14 elections.

A selected list of about 45 of these players can be found here. I've included the voting totals for each of these players, as well as their career stats through the end of the 1991 season (when this voting took place). I've also created a crude metric to rank the "certainty" of a given player's Hall chances, according to these votes (+1 pt for each "Shoo-In" vote, +0.5 pts for each "Good Chance" vote, -0.5 pts for each "Doubtful" vote, and -1 pt for each "No Chance" vote; "Even Money" votes are neutral). Players in bold are currently in the Hall of Fame. Keep reading to see what more the TSN writers had to say about some of these players.

Some people might look at this list and and think that it doesn't tell us anything new. After all, it's pretty obvious from 14 years of HOF votes that Tommy John's career, for example, was a tough one to gauge by the writers, especially since the same people that have kept him on the ballot all these years are the ones voting in this article. That's all true, but I prefer to look at the list and find the surprises: Roger Clemens' HOF career was that obvious, even after only 8 years? Why were people so down on Paul Molitor after 1700 games played and nearly 2100 hits, or on Eddie Murray after 2300 games played, 2500 hits, and 400 home runs? Insights like that are what I love, and why I keep reading these magazines.

Along with the big chart detailing all 70+ players voted on, the article also includes some notes and observations about some of the "active players whose cases could go either way."

"Jose Canseco - Age and raw power are two of Canseco' credentials, but probably not the most valuable. In the last six American League seasons, he has averaged 34 homers and 106 runs batted in - amazing figures, considering that problems with his hands and back have forced him to miss 136 games in the last three years. But Canseco may have paved his way into the Hall as much on the basepaths as in the batter's box. His 42-homer, 40-steal season in 1988 is the only 40/40 performance in big-league history."

Canseco is the biggest "false positive" mistake on the list, with 17 "positive" votes and only 1 "negative" vote. This isn't too big of a surprise, though, considering Canseco was the shortest tenured player voted on and also had the most unpredictable career of the last 20 years (other than maybe Sammy Sosa). You can't really fault someone for not accurately predicting all of that. What is interesting to note, though, is just how certain people were of where his career was heading, ranking ahead of, among others, Dave Winfield and Gary Carter.

"Paul Molitor - He's a shoo-in for the trainer's room Hall of Fame, if not Cooperstown. Molitor has played more than 145 games only five times in a 14-year career, as injuries have sidelined him for 570 games, the equivalent of 3.5 seasons. It's a shame, because Molitor could have piled up the numbers to make him a sure thing. He's a lifetime .302 hitter who has scored one run every 1.43 games. Ty Cobb, who holds the record with 2,245 runs scored, averaged one run for every 1.35 games; Pete Rose had one for every 1.65 games."

Molitor represents the biggest "false negative" mistake on the list, with 11 "negative" votes (including two "No Chance" votes) and only 8 "positive" votes. Of course, it's pretty clear from the write-up that Molitor's talents and achievements were well-respected, and that it was just his injury-risk that seemed to scare people away. No one really had any reason to think that he would continue to play over 900 more games, almost all of which at DH.

"Dennis Eckersley - He'd be posing for a bronze bust right now if he had been quicker to realize the dangers of night life and being a starting pitcher at Fenway Park. Eckersley has saved 185 games in only five years with the Oakland Athletics (he had only three saves before that), but he's still 153 behind the record (341) that got Rollie Fingers into the Hall in January [1992]. Eckersley spent his first 12 big-league seasons as a starter, but was healthy enough to pitch 200 innings in only six of those years."

Looking back today, we know just how impressed the writers were with Eck's two-part career, but this article gives us a taste of how uncertain everyone was with his career as it was happening.

"Alan Trammell - Here's how long Trammell has been in Detroit: The Tigers' last regular shortstop was Tom Veryzer. Trammell has been the No. 1 shortstop in Detroit for 14 seasons. A good offensive player, he has been helped by his ballpark but rates far behind his counterpart in Baltimore, Cal Ripken, in consideration for the Hall. He needs to make some magic in his last few years to rank among the elite."

The argument for Trammell these days is that he was a great offensive and defensive shortstop, but he had the misfortune of playing right when Ripken was revolutionizing the way we value shortstops and their contributions. I guess that was even happening almost 20 years ago.

"Jack Morris - There's nothing striking about his career earned-run average (3.71), but voters could be swayed by his true grit while spending a career in hitter's parks. He has won 216 games but will be remembered - and perhaps honored - for his 7-1 postseason record. His 1-0 victory over Atlanta last fall was the best performance ever in a Game 7 of the World Series."

In the debates we read every year over Jack Morris, his performance in Game 7 of the 1991 World Series always seems to come up to some degree. Seeing this article then, written with that fresh in mind, you can see the genesis of that argument. His performance is mentioned explicitly in the article, and it can likely be seen in the voting, where Morris gets 11 "Good Chance" votes and even 1 "Shoo-In" vote.

Jim Rice wasn't highlighted by the article, so it's hard to know what the voters in the article were thinking. I think it is interesting to note that Dwight Evans actually received more support in this than Rice. The votes for Rice were: 0-3-13-10-0, for a -3.5 certainty. The votes for Evans were: 0-6-10-10-0, for a -2 certainty. Neither Red Sox outfielder had overwhelming support, but Evans' was slightly more. It makes you wonder how Evans fell off after three years while Rice was able to push on to his 15th year, where he is on the verge of getting inducted.

The votes for Blyleven (0-6-13-6-1 = -1), Sutter (1-5-12-7-1 = -1) and Raines (0-4-6-14-2 = -7) are also notable, though they really only show you that voters weren't ready to vote for these guys yet. And that's something that is pretty obvious from their being on the HOF ballot for so many years. In any case, being able to look back in time and see how writers were judging players' HOF chances before they were eligible is quite enlightening and, to me at least, quite interesting.

My Hall of Fame ballot

Over at Bill James Online, columnist Dave Fleming has posted his Hall of Fame ballot and asked the BJOL readers to post their own ballots. Next week, he'll tabulate all the votes and announce the BJOL Readers HOF awards. So I complied, and posted my own ballot over there at Bill James Online. But I thought it was worth posting here, comments and all. This isn't meant in any way to be a disparagement of certain candidates, so there's no Jim Rice bashing here. It's also a look at the current ballot, so there's no rooting for Fernando or anything like that. Just some comments on who I would vote for this year for the Hall of Fame, and who else I wish would be given some consideration...

Guys who I think should definitely be in the Hall:

Blyleven: I don't really remember Blyleven playing, though I do remember getting his baseball cards in the late '80s. With that said, I find it impossible to see his numbers (his wins, his strikeouts, his shutouts & complete games, etc) and not see a hall of famer. I wish someone could give me a real argument for why he doesn't belong that doesn't include "300 wins" or "no cy youngs"...

Rickey: How can you not vote for Rickey? Even forgetting the stolen bases, he scored the most runs in history and earned the most walks in history (#2 if you count the intentional walks... it's all the same). If anyone from my lifetime of watching baseball deserves to go in the Hall, it's Rickey...

Mac: I know there's the whole steroid thing, and it's significant. But, in the end, I think everyone's going to accept that it happened and looks at those numbers through that lens. Mac should be in by now.

Raines: The numbers that Raines put up during the 80s and into the 90s are pretty phenomenal, but everyone seems to forget it or just not know it, and I wonder why that is. Is it a product of the 80s, when it doesn't seem like any single person was able to break through as the "one true great player"? Is it that he played in baseball purgatory during his prime years? It's got to be something, right?

Trammell: One of the best all-around shortstops there was... I think he got penalized for playing during the Ripken-era transition to the "big shortstops" like A-Rod and Jeter and Nomar and Tejada... Trammell's numbers just don't look the same compared to those guys, and people just can't figure out how to compare them.

Guys who I think are close, or who I wish well and would like to see have a long consideration phase

Technically, a player can be either a HOFer or not, with no gray area. However, there really is a gray area there... when someone can stay on the ballot for 10 or 15 years, even if they don't get in, it says something strong about their career, but when they drop off after the 1st or 2nd year, it says something else. Which is why it's sad when some players get dropped off so quickly, like Will Clark or Lou Whitaker... and that's what I mean by "players who I wish would get a long consideration phase"

Harold Baines: I really, really liked Baines as a player, when he played for the O's and when he didn't. He was a great guy, a great teammate, and he was always a reliable player. But I don't think he ever put up the type of numbers that a "professional hitter" should to be considered for the Hall. I hope he gets some good consideration, though

Andre Dawson: There's a lot to like about Dawson's numbers, esp. considering how much of his career he gave up by playing on the terrible concrete in Montreal. But I can understand the arguments against him too... the low OBP, etc. Still, I wouldn't be upset if he was elected.

Mark Grace: Grace always seemed like a strong, consistent player. I don't think he belongs in the Hall, but it'd be nice to see him get some votes.

Don Mattingly: To me, it's pretty obvious that his career was too short to justify a Hall bid, but, for about six years, he was pretty much the best there was.

Dale Murphy: When I was growing up, it seemed like a foregone conclusion that Murphy would end up in the Hall. His offense, his personality, his back-to-back MVPs... I know that he dropped off the table pretty quickly, so I can understand that his career never ended where it was expected and that he never quite reached those HOF levels. Still, Murphy's the kind of guy that you want people to keep considering, since it's really the only honor left.

Jesse Orosco: The first baseball game that I have a vivid memory of attending, from the drive down the freeway through all 9 innings, was an Indians at Angels game in August 1989 (I know I went to many other Angels and Dodgers games when I was much younger, but I can't remember any specific ones). We sat in left field, about 8 seats over from the bullpen (Lance Parrish hit a ball directly at our seats, but it curved foul at the last minute - this was a very memorable event to an 8 year old). Anyhow, I remember distinctly Jesse Orosco came in for the Indians during the seventh inning to face Wally Joyner. And then, 14 years later, I saw the Padres play the Dodgers in LA, and Jesse Orosco came in during the 8th to strike out Shawn Green and Fred McGriff. I know that's not very interesting to everybody else, but I think it's a pretty good example of the guy's career.

Prospect Preview: 1985

Reading through all of the preview guides from the late '80, there's one thing that's pretty clear about the time: the rookie classes of 1986 and 1987, with the likes of Jose Canseco, Will Clark, Barry Bonds, Barry Larkin, and Mark McGwire, were considered at the time to be some of the best of all time. And while history hasn't quite borne out the greatness predicted for everyone in that group of players (BJ Surhoff and Benito Santiago and Wally Joyner, while having decent careers, aren't exactly busting down Cooperstown's doors), they were definitely a pair of excellent rookie classes that re-wrote some record books.

The 1985 rookie class, however, wasn't quite as impressive as those two and therefore was never quite as celebrated. But it wasn't without it's highlights, and it did produce some quality major leaguers. It seems like a good time, then, to take a look back and see what was being said about those players before they made it to the big leagues.

From the 1985 Street & Smith's baseball preview guide:

Ozzie Guillen: "As a 20-year-old in AAA, shortstop Ozzie Guillen was being compared to Ozzie Smith defensively. Guillen, who comes over from the Padres organization, batted .296 and had 53 RBIs in the leadoff spot for Las Vegas. The Pacific Coast League all-star didn't walk much (13 times) or strike out often (40 times in 463 at-bats)."

Today, when I see an article with Ozzie's name in the headline, my first thought is to wonder what he said or did this time as manager of the White Sox. It's sometimes hard to remember that he was a young defensive star for the club in the late-80s and early-90s, or that he actually won the 1985 Rookie of the Year award. It's amazing how much can happen in 23 years.

Dale Sveum: "Third baseman Dale Sveum improved greatly with the bat from '83 to '84. A .261 hitter in A-ball, Sveum was second among Texas League batters last season with a .329 average. The switch-hitter's 256 total bases and 41 doubles led the AA league."

Teddy Higuera: "Lefty Ted Higuera was just 1-4 in AAA. But at El Paso he led the AA league in ERA (2.60), was 8-7, and for the year had 128 strikeouts in 161 innings pitched."

For Brewers fans, the 2008 season gave everyone a much better chance to get to know Dale Sveum than would have been expected, as he took over as interim manager for the fired Ned Yost with only 14 games left to play in the season. But Sveum had been around the organization for much longer than that, and was one of the Brewers top prospects in the mid-'80s. After a couple of full seasons with the club, he quickly became a part-time player, though he did stick around the majors for 12 years.

Teddy Higuera, on the other hand, was a top prospect for the Brewers early on, and achieved quick success, finishing second in Rookie of the Year balloting in 1985 and then finishing second in Cy Young balloting the following year (in what was to become the last 20-win season for a Milwaukee pitcher). But his career was short-lived, and he was out of baseball after only 9 years, the last three of which saw him pitch in only 32 games combined due to injury. It's sad because people really forget how good of a pitcher he was when he was healthy.

Harold Reynolds and Danny Tartabull: "In AAA, the DP combo of second baseman Harold Reynolds and shortstop Danny Tartabull could move up together this spring. Reynolds, a switch hitter, batted .294 at Salt Lake City, stole 37 bases and displayed excellent range that earned him Pacific Coast League all-star honors. Tartabull had PCL stats of .304, 13, 73. He has a rifle arm but must get past Spike Owen for the top job."

This pair of prospects both went on to solid, productive careers, but not as a double-play combo. Tartabull only played 50 or so games in his career in the infield, instead covering right field and batting DH for the majority of his career for the likes of the Royals and the Yankees. He also had a memorable appearance on Seinfeld. Reynolds did have a long career as Seattle's second baseman, earning his playing time with his glove. His stint on ESPN's Baseball Tonight was also memorable, though not always for the best reasons. I hope he does well on the new MLB Network...

Eric Davis: "Perhaps the top prospect of all is outfielder Eric Davis, who has shuttled between AAA and the bigs in '84. Despite two call-ups and injuries, he was rated one of the premier prospects in the league. In 52 games at Wichita, Davis had 14 homers, drove in 34 runs, had 27 stolen bases, and batted .314."

Probably the biggest star of this group of players during the first five years of his career, Davis was a key part of those Cincinnati teams and a big offensive player. You can still find people reminiscing about his swing and "what could have been."

Andres Galarraga: "Although he's big and played exclusively at first base, Andres Galarraga is capable of filling in at third, left field, or back of the plate. More important, he carries a big stick (.289, with a club-record 27 homers and 87 RBIs at Jacksonville)."

And though Davis may have been the biggest star early on, the Big Cat is easily the player with the longest productive career of this group, earning All-Star appearances and MVP votes all the way until the year 2000. His final career numbers - 2,333 hits, 399 home runs, .288/.347/.499 - tell the story of a ballplayer who knew how to swing the bat. Playing in the thin air of Coors Field obviously helped him, but his bat was still plenty potent in other parks. I imagine there are a few people out there who would even support a Big Cat Hall of Fame nomination (maybe as the "face and leader of the Rockies"), though I wouldn't be one of them.

Vince Coleman: "Imagine having your base-stealing total fall off by 44 and still having more than 100 thefts? That's the story of Vince Coleman, the Louisville outfielder who has afterburners. He jumped from A to AAA and stole 101 bases, breaking Tim Raines's American Association record. Coleman also scored a league-high 97 runs but struck out over 100 times."

Finally, the run-away (rimshot!) NL Rookie of the Year in 1985, Coleman was the talk of the town his first few years in the league, stealing 100 bases in each of his first three seasons and netting 407 bags in only four years of service. But his career changed quickly in the '90s, as injuries and the changing game left him behind. But it's hard to forget the flash of those first few years, and it's clear from this report of him as a prospect that he was always that same player. He knew what he wanted when he got on-base, and he went for it, no matter how many times he'd get caught stealing.

Clearly, the 1985 rookie class was not the equal of the '86 or '87 classes, but it did have some notable names itself. I'll take a look at those '86 and '87 rookie classes at some point, but there truly are a lot of big names in them, and I want to make sure to do it right. But the likes of Vince Coleman, Andres Galarraga and Eric Davis still deserve remembering, as they were all very interesting players in their own right.

Through the Years: Don Mattingly

In the next week or so, the Hall of Fame Class of 2009 will be announced, and, in all likelihood, Don Mattingly will be passed over for the ninth consecutive year. And while his Hall of Fame-credentials may be debatable, his is definitely a career worth remembering and celebrating.

Even for those of us who are not exactly Yankees fans, it's hard to deny that Donnie Baseball played the game in an admirable way and at an exceptional level for over a decade. He was always one of the most respected guys in the league, and it only took a few short years before he was in the "best player in baseball" conversation. Whether this was a product of 1980s baseball (and its dearth of dominant superstars), or of the New York media market, or if it was truly a result of his talent and personality, it doesn't exactly matter because Mattingly was a legitimate superstar and quite worthy of the praise.

Because of this, and because we seem to forget it somewhat fifteen years later, I think it's worth looking at his career as it was seen by contemporary writers. As is the case with other "Through the Years" posts, I'll be looking through my collection of annual baseball preview magazines to see how Mattingly was seen on a year-to-year basis and to see how quickly his stature rose.

We'll begin with the 1983 Street & Smith's preview guide, in the minor league prospects section:

"Outfielder-first sacker Don Mattingly has big-league hitter written all over him. A Double-A all-star in 1981, when he batted .314, he didn't skip a beat in AAA, where he hit .315 with 75 ribbies. Mattingly, a line-drive hitter who always makes contact, can only be questioned for a lack of power."

Though he started the season with the big club, Mattingly didn't get called up for good until late-June 1983, quickly replacing the injured Steve Kemp at first. By the end of the season, he had put up a respectable .283/.333/.409 line, and had seemingly won the starting spot for good.

While his rookie season was solid, it didn't provide a great glimpse of things to come. The following year's Street & Smith's mentioned him only briefly, though that would be the last time that would happen. Mattingly's sophomore season was terrific, hitting .343/.381/.537 with 207 hits and 110 RBIs and only 33 strikeouts. And though his OBP was only 38 points better than his average, he still had a 156 OPS+. He finished fifth in the MVP voting that year.

The season was impressive enough that he was quickly embraced by the city of New York, and, when the Yankees signed Rickey Henderson that off-season, it created a line-up that people just couldn't wait to see. From the 1985 Street & Smith's:

"Just think of the RBI situations [Rickey will] create for Don Mattingly (.343, 23 HR, 110 RBI) ... Mattingly's batting title was the first for a Yankee since Mickey Mantle's .353 in 1956. His 207 hits were the most since Bobby Richardson's 200 in '62."

The excitement and predictions were well-placed. The 1985 season was one of his best, and it led to his only MVP award. He batted .324/.371/.567 with 211 hits, 107 runs scored, 35 home runs, 145 RBIs, and a 156 OPS+. The significance of Rickey's arrival and what it did for his MVP award was not lost on Mattingly:

"Mattingly credits the presence of Henderson and Winfield as major factors in his success. 'When you have Henderson hitting in front of you and Winfield behind you,' Mattingly said, 'it means someone's always on base and pitchers can't pitch around you. I put up some great numbers last year but I couldn't have done it without them.'"

Manager Lou Piniella was very impressed with Mattingly after his MVP season:

"'He's one of those special players who come along once in a long while,' said Piniella. 'By the time he's finished, he'll be recognized as one of the all-time greats.'"

Mattingly put up another superb season in 1986 to rival his '85 campaign. With a .352/.294/.573 line and 117 runs scored, 238 hits, 31 home runs, 113 RBIs, and a 161 OPS+, he finished second in the MVP voting behind Boston's Roger Clemens.

The 1987 Street & Smith's put his season in perspective:

"Mattingly became only the tenth player in history and the first in 27 years to finish with at least 200 hits, a .350 average, 30 home runs, and 100 runs batted in. His final numbers were .352 with 31 homers and 113 RBIs. His 238 hits smashed Earl Combs's team record of 231 and his 53 doubles took out Lou Gehrig's 52. The left-hander even played third base in an emergency."

The season also impressed the Sporting News, saying that he "further enhanced his image as a throwback to another era", and the Petersen's baseball preview called him "baseball's best player." He did come back to earth a little during that 1987 season, but he still ended with a .327/.378/.559 line and a 146 OPS+. His season was not forgettable, however, as he set a record that season for most grand slams in a season with 6 and also tied a record for hitting home runs in 8 consecutive games. Needless to say, Mattingly had made more than an impression on the league. From the 1988 Athlon preview guide:

"Don Mattingly has played only four full years in the major leagues.When the 1988 season opens, he'll be only 26 years old. And he is the best player in baseball.

That label is not given casually. It comes from the most discerning critics available: Mattingly's fellow players. The first baseman of the New York Yankees was selected as the best of the best in a poll of players by the New York Times in 1986. Players again were asked their choice in 1987, this time by USA Today. They hadn't changed their minds."

For the first time since his rookie year, Mattingly's 1988 campaign failed to earn him MVP consideration. He did make his fifth consecutive All-Star team and win his fourth consecutive Gold Glove, however. It was also the second straight year that he missed some time due to injuries, playing in only 144 games that year. His 1989 season was better, as he returned to full health, playing in 158 games and hitting .303/.351/.477 with a 133 OPS+.

By this time, Mattingly had played in six full seasons and had established himself as a genuine person and ballplayer. In compiling their "Dream Team" roster of the best players at each position over the previous 50 years (from 1941 to 1990), the 1990 Street & Smith's did not fail to recognize this:

"First Base: Don Mattingly and Willie McCovey

One of the only two players on the "Street & Smith's Dream Team," Mattingly won a spot after less than seven full seasons with the Yankees. He has earned the respect of teammates and opponents, of players past and present, and of fans and the media with a renowned work ethic and outstanding ability. A Triple Crown threat, Mattingly has batted over .300 in each of the last six years while averaging more than 26 homers and 114 RBIs and striking out just 202 times. Defensively, he has few peers..."

That season - 1990 - marked the first significant injury to Mattingly, with him appearing in only 102 games that year, and it marked the beginning of the end of his career. If Mattingly had continued to play anywhere near the level that he showed between 1984 and 1989 for 5 to 7 more years, I don't think there's any doubt that he'd already be enshrined in Cooperstown.

Instead, a bad back took away an excellent hitter, defender, and person and will likely keep him out of the Hall forever. It's a shame because, even though there are many of us who dislike the Yankees and think that their history gets a little over-played by the national media, it's still nice to see genuine people with genuine talents get the recognition that they deserve. Don Mattingly was one of these people, and I hope people take the time to remember players like him every now and then (and Hall of Fame-time isn't a bad time to do it).

The Gray-Ink Test

Happy New Year and all of that. I spent New Year's Day sitting courtside at the Villanova/Marquette game, which was pretty awesome. My whole weekend wasn't quite that exciting, though.

Yesterday, I finally spent the time necessary to get the single season Gray-Ink Test leaders. As I mentioned in my original post, the Black-Ink and Gray-Ink Tests are stats included over at Baseball-Reference that measure how often a player led the league in certain categories. In the Black-Ink Test, players get points only for leading the league in those certain categories, while in the Gray-Ink Test players get points for finishing in the top-10 in those same categories.

Before I post the Gray-Ink Test single-season leaders, I should mention a couple of things:

• While running these numbers yesterday, I noticed a couple of errors in my original Black-Ink Test calculations. Somehow, the Innings Pitched and Games Played by batters leaderboards weren't quite giving the proper lists. See the original post for an update on the numbers.
• The leaderboard over at Baseball-Reference for rate stats (like batting average or slugging percentage, etc) includes players who don't have enough plate appearances to qualify for the title that year, but only if, by adding in the appropriate number of hitless at-bats to qualify, they are still in the Top 10. A good example of this would be Ryan Braun leading the NL in slugging in 2007. However, the lists that I have generated so far do not take these players into consideration. I can probably run the lists again with these players considered if it's really wanted.
• The leaders are broken down by league (i.e., AL vs NL), so players who change leagues during the season are penalized. Think Mark McGwire in 1997, who led the majors with 58 home runs, but led neither the AL nor NL individually. This, I believe, is consistent with MLB's record books, so I don't feel too bad about this.
• The list I provided is only since 1901. It's already top-heavy with dead-ball era players, and it didn't seem worth including players from the 1880s as well.

The Gray-Ink Test, as defined by Baseball-Reference, gives everyone the same amount of points for finishing 10th on the list or finishing 1st. Here is the list of the top 150 single-seasons for the Gray-Ink Test.

However, I'm not sure how much I like that version of the Gray-Ink Test. For example, should someone who finishes 10th in 3 categories be ranked the same as someone who finishes 2nd in the same 3 categories? And should someone who finishes 10th in RBIs get more points than someone who finishes 1st in Runs Scored? I suspect that this unweighted Gray-Ink Test works well when looking at a player's entire career, but it definitely doesn't work when comparing players within a single season.

Because of that, I also ran the numbers for a weighted Gray-Ink Test. In this ranking, I gave players points depending on their ranking in the top 10. If, for example, they led the league in Home Runs, then they were given the full 4 points. If they finished second, they received (0.9 * 4pts) = 3.6pts. If they finished third, they received (0.8 * 4pts) = 3.2pts and so on, all the way down to the tenth-place player receiving (0.1 * 4pts) = 0.4pts. Here is the list of the top 150 single-seasons for the Weighted Gray-Ink Test.

A few seasons of note:

Babe Ruth, 1918: In the Black-Ink Test, this season of Ruth's doesn't even come close to finishing in the Top 150, as he only led the league in Home Runs and Slugging. However, when you expand it to the unweighted Gray-Ink Test, it becomes the best single season ever. This is because Ruth finished in the top 10 in 12 different categories, including 3 pitching categories. It's a pretty impressive feat, as I don't think any one else was ever able to do it.

Christy Mathewson, 1908: This is probably the next most impressive season in history, when looking through the Black-Ink and Gray-Ink lenses. In this year, Mathewson was in the top three in all twelve pitching categories, and only didn't finish first in two of those categories (he finished second in Win Percentage and third in Hits per 9 Innings).

Stan Musial, 1948, and Ted Williams, 1949: Tied for 23rd in the weighted Gray-Ink Test, these are the first two post-World War II seasons to appear on the list.

Greg Maddux, 1994: Tied for 48th on the weighted Gray-Ink Test, this is the first season of any player who has played in the last 5-10 years to appear on the list. Maddux finished first in six different categories, including Wins and ERA, and finished in either second or third in 4 others.

Bret Saberhagen, 1989, and Greg Maddux, 1995: Only two spots lower on the list than Maddux's 1994 season, his 1995 season was nearly identical, finishing first in 7 categories and second or third in two others. However, it's Saberhagen's appearance so high on the list that I found intriguing. In his 1989 campaign, he finished first in five different categories and between second and fourth in five others. This season is higher than any season from Roger Clemens (highest season: 61st), Randy Johnson (also 61st), or Pedro Martinez (not in the top 150).